{"msg": "778\nAXPZ20 KNHC 152302 CCA\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026\nCorrected Remainder of the Area section\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2145 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 86W north of 03N to inland \ncentral Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, It is moving westward at \nabout 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon \ntrough section below.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 105W south of 17N. It is \nmoving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is seen from 07N to 13N between the wave and 110W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over\nnorthern Colombia at 10N75W westward to along the coast of \ncentral Panama, through southern Costa Rica to 10N84W to 07N92W\nto 07N105W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N117W to \n07N124W and to 12N130W. Numerous moderate to strong convection \nis from 04N to 09N between 80W-86W, and from 05N to 08N between \n86W-90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is \nwithin 60 nm of the trough between 86W-92W, and from 10N to 14N \nbetween 125W-131W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nFresh to near gale north gap winds are over the Gulf of \nTehuantepec as noted in a satellite ASCAT scatterometer pass\nfrom earlier today. Moderate to locally fresh northwest winds \nare near the Pacific coast of Baja California. Elsewhere, winds \nare moderate or weaker. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the Gulf of \nTehuantepec, 4 to 6 ft over the remaining Pacific waters, and 1 \nto 3 ft over the Gulf of California. No significant deep \nconvection is occurring over the Mexican offshore zones.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure south of \nMexico will continue to induce pulses of fresh to strong north \nwinds well into the upcoming week over the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nthrough the period. Winds may again reach near gale force \nthrough Tue. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are forecast off \nof the Baja California peninsula through Tue, with winds reaching\nstrong speeds near and north of Punta Eugenia east of 117W. \nElsewhere, winds and seas should remain rather calm until at \nleast mid next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could\nform several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of \nsouthern Mexico near the middle portion of next week. Some \ngradual development of this system is possible, while the system \nmoves westward or west- northwestward well south of Mexico. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are over the\nGulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, \nwinds are moderate or weaker across forecast waters, except \nlocally fresh near the entrance to the Gulf of Guayaquil. Seas \nare 5 to ft in long-period southwest over the remainder of \nforecast waters. Numerous moderate to strong convection is \nover the waters off Panama and Costa Rica.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the western Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over \nCentral America will lead to fresh to strong northeast to east \ngap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night \nbefore weakening early next week with winds diminishing to \nmoderate to fresh there. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will \npulse south of the monsoon trough through Mon. Large southerly \nswell will impact the waters mainly from Ecuador to the Galapagos\nIslands through the next several days, largest expected by \naround the middle portion of the upcoming week. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected\nAs of 21 UTC, the remnant low of former Tropical Depression Hernan \nis centered near 15.8N 135.9W, or about 1530 nm west of the southern \ntip of Baja California and with a pressure of 1009 mb. It is moving \nwestward at 10 kt. Northeast to east winds of 20 to 25 kt are within \n420 nm of the low in the northern semicircle of the low, where a \ntight pressure gradient exists between it and high pressure over the \nnorthern waters. A satellite Ascat altimeter pass from 1829 UTC \nclearly revealed these winds. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these winds. \nModerate to fresh northeast to east trades are elsewhere from 15N to \n26N west of about 126W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds.\nOtherwise, high pressure of 1024 mb is analyzed north of the\narea at 34N129W, with a ridge extending southeastward to \n26N120W and to near 20N114W. The pressure gradient between the \nridge and relatively lower pressure to the south in the \nsubtropics and tropics is generally allowing for mostly moderate \ntrades from 16N to 23N between 120W and 126W. Gentle to moderate \ntrades are from 07N to 16N between 120W and 126W. Seas are 5 to \n7 ft over these waters per latest satellite altimeter data \npasses. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the \nwaters north of the Equator with seas of 5 to 7 ft, except seas \nto 8 ft near the Equator between 97W and 122W. Moderate to fresh \nsoutheast winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are south of the Equator. \nAny convection is described above in the monsoon trough/ITCZ \nsection.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh southeast winds will prevail\nsouth of the Equator. Rough seas will pulse on either side near \nthe Equator to the east of about 130W over the next several days\nin persistent and reinforced southerly swells.\nLooking ahead, the remnant low of Tropical Depression Hernan\nis forecast to move west of 140W Sun night while continuing to \nweaken. Winds will diminish to mostly moderate speeds from 16N \nto 23N west of 130W, with occasional gusts to fresh speeds\nSun night and seas over those waters will lower to around\n5 to 6 ft. With regards to potential tropical cyclone formation,\nan area of low pressure is expected form well to the west- \nsouthwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula\nby early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive \nfor gradual development of this system and a tropical depression \ncould form around the middle of next week while it moves \ngenerally westward across the western portion of the east \nPacific. Also, an area of low pressure could form several hundred\nnautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico near the \nmiddle portion of next week. Some gradual development of this \nsystem is possible, while the system moves westward or west- \nnorthwestward well south of Mexico.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201813997096304647", "issued": "2026-08-15T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201813997096304647"}