{"id": "1201786875787345927", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-15T21:00:00Z", "msg": "691\nWTPA42 PHFO 152044\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  14\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026\n \nLala's radar and satellite presentation has improved since earlier\nthis morning, including a ragged eye appearing in visible and\ninfrared satellite images. The Dvorak intensity estimate from WFO\nHonolulu increased to T4.0/65 kt at 1800 UTC, and radar data from\nthe South Point, Hawaii, site have been showing patches of \nwinds around 70 kt at 8,000 to 10,000 ft to the northeast of \nthe center. Based on this data, Lala was upgraded to a hurricane on \nthe 9 AM HST (1900 UTC) Tropical Cyclone Update, and the initial \nintensity is still estimated to be 65 kt.\n \nRecent radar fixes of Lala's center suggest the hurricane is\nfeeling the influence of the Big Island of Hawaii, and it's now\nmoving more slowly toward the northwest (305/7 kt). Dynamical model\nfields continue to show the center getting pulled northwestward\ninto or near the Big Island later this afternoon while at the same\ntime a lee-side trough or broad low forms west of the island. This\nwill likely cause a discontinuous track that is not reflected in\nthe official forecast points or track forecast cone. This also\nmakes it unclear if Lala will actually make a landfall on the Big\nIsland. Whatever is left of the cyclone after interacting with the\nBig Island is expected to turn westward on Sunday and continue on\nthat track through Tuesday. A shortwave trough moving across the\nnorthern Pacific around the middle of next week may weaken the ridge\nenough to allow Lala to turn toward the west-northwest and then\nnorthwest, potentially approaching western portions of the\nNorthwestern Hawaiian Islands, but there is quite a bit of track\nguidance spread around day 5.\n \nLala could strengthen a little more over the next few hours before\nthe circulation becomes disrupted by the Big Island. The\ninteraction is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken\nsignificantly, and the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered a\nbit while Lala moves south of the remainder of the main Hawaiian\nIslands. Some re-strengthening could occur after 48 hours, and the\nNHC forecast is closest to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.\n \nNHC will continue to issue hourly position updates via the\nTropical Cyclone Update product (HFOTCUCP2) as long as the eye \nremains well defined in radar imagery.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of\nHawaii today, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas\nof higher terrain. Residents are urged to stay in their shelter \nthrough tonight. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are also\nspreading across portions of the smaller islands and should\ncontinue through Sunday.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall will continue to overspread the Big Island this\nafternoon and then spread westward across the remainder of the\nisland chain tonight and Sunday. This rainfall will produce\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain.\n \n3. Large and dangerous waves are expected across portions of the\nHawaiian Islands this weekend. Surf is building along east-facing\nshores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala\npasses through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized\ncoastal flooding and significant beach erosion.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  15/2100Z 18.2N 155.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 19.3N 157.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 20.0N 159.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  17/0600Z 20.1N 162.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  17/1800Z 20.2N 164.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  18/0600Z 20.2N 166.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  18/1800Z 20.3N 168.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  19/1800Z 21.3N 171.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  20/1800Z 23.1N 173.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}