{"msg": "658\nAXNT20 KNHC 151712\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCaribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains tighten \nbetween surface ridging over the W Atlantic and the Colombian \nLow. This will again favor increasing winds in the south-central \nCaribbean, supporting gale-force NE to E winds off Colombia this \nevening and early Sunday morning. Expect rough to very rough seas\nto near 15 ft near and downwind of these winds. Please read the \nlatest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center \nat website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the\nlatest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details.\nHeavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two \ntropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next\nseveral days, and will interact with enhanced divergence aloft and\nan active monsoon trough. The first tropical wave is located over\nthe western Caribbean and over Panama. As this wave continues \nwestward, expect heavy precipitation to continue in Costa Rica, \nthe Darien region and into Choc-Colombia on Saturday and into \nSunday. By Sunday, the second tropical wave enters the west \nCaribbean. Long fetch westerly flow is expected to occur from \nSunday into Monday, favoring an increase in available moisture \ninto Colombia. The heaviest precipitation is expected in Costa \nRica throughout the day on Saturday and into early Sunday morning,\nwhile the heaviest precipitation in Panama, the Darien Region, \nand Choc- Colombia occurs Sunday into Monday. There is some \nuncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall could reach, \nparticularly due to how far south the available moisture and the \nwesterly flow enters the region. Please refer to the WPC \nInternational Desk and local weather services for more \ninformation.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 27W, \nmoving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \nfrom 06N to 14N between 22W and 32W.\nA tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 41W, \nmoving west at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \nnoted from 05N to 14N between 40W and 49W. \nA tropical wave is in the E Caribbean south of 20N with axis near\n64W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate\nconvection extends from 10N to 17N between 60W and 67W.\nA tropical wave is in the far W Caribbean with axis near 85W,\nmoving westward at about 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance\nconvection over Panama, Costa Rica, and far southern Nicaragua.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends \nsouthwestward to 07N45W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical \nWaves section above. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA 1021 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf, supporting \ngentle to moderate winds across the forecast waters. Seas are 1-4 \nft. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Bay of Campeche \nassociated with a surface trough. Scattered showers and\nthunderstorms are also developing across the central Gulf, driven\nby convergent surface winds.\nFor the forecast, a high pressure center will remain over the \nnorth-central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening \nsome by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E\nto SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds \noccurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay\nof Campeche each night, as a surface trough migrates from the \nYucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate \nseas are expected through the forecast period. Looking ahead, by \nmidweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds over the NW \nand west-central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between \nthe high pressure and lower pressures over north-central Mexico. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning \nin effect for the south-central basin. See the Tropical Waves\nsection for more info on winds and convection in the E Caribbean.\nOutside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and \nrough seas are occurring over much of the Caribbean S of 18N. \nModerate to locally fresh E winds prevail over the remaining \nwaters with seas 3-6 ft. A surface trough along the eastern \nYucatan Peninsula supports scattered moderate convection from the \nGulf of Honduras up along the Yucatan coast.\nFor the forecast, a ridge N of the area combined with the \nColombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds over \nmost of the east and central Caribbean this weekend. Peak winds to\nminimal gale-force are expected offshore Colombia tonight. A \nstrong tropical wave, with axis near 64W, Invest AL92 , will \ncontinue to impact the eastern Caribbean today. Even though \ndevelopment is highly unlikely, strong gusty winds, rough seas and\nareas of heavy rain are still possible across portions of the \nLesser Antilles today. These weather conditions are forecast to \nshift westward toward the central and SW Caribbean, including the \nGreater Antilles and the Windward Passage from tonight through \nMon. Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward \nthe W Caribbean.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nRidging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high SE\nof Bermuda. Along the coast of Western Sahara and through the \nCanary Islands, NE winds are fresh with seas 6-7 ft. Elsewhere \nthe trades are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft. Scattered\nmoderate convection is occurring along and N of 30N between 55W\nand 75W as a cold front approaches the discussion waters.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined \nwith the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will \ncause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including the \napproaches and in the Windward Passage from late this afternoon \nthrough Sun night. Looking ahead, a cold front will slowly push \nacross the northern forecast border east of 70W late on Sun, \ncausing a wind shift to the NW and then N with fresh to locally \nstrong wind speeds ahead of the front on Sun and Mon north of 28N.\nThe front will stall on Monday before dissipating Tue. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201745249395867655", "issued": "2026-08-15T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201745249395867655"}