{"msg": "986\nAXPZ20 KNHC 151643 CCA\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026\nCorrected Tropical Waves section\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1545 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Hernan is centered near 1 6.1N 134.9W, or\nabout 1470 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja\nCalifornia at 15/1500 UTC moving westward at 10 kt. Estimated \nminimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed\nis 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft or 3 m.\nShear has taken a toll on Hernan as latest satellite imagery\ndepicts the system as a swirl of low to mid-level clouds with \nno deep convection. The depression is forecast to maintain its \ncurrent motion for the next few days. Hernan is forecast to \ndegenerate to a remnant low pressure area later today. Please \nread the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website- \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nHernan NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...Corrected\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 85W north of 03N to inland \ncentral Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, It is moving westward \nat about 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the \nITCZ/monsoon trough section below.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 103W south of 17N. It is moving \nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is \nseen from 07N to 13N between the wave and 110W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over\nnorthern Colombia at 10N75W westward to along the coast of \nsouthern Panama and through central Costa Rica, and continues \nto 10N84W to 10N99W and to 08N105W, where it transitions to \nthe ITCZ to 05N115W to 08N123W and to 13N130W. Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is from 05N to 09N between \n78W-88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection \nis within 120 nm south of the trough between 95W-100W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nFresh to locally strong north gap winds are over the Gulf of \nTehuantepec as was detected by overnight satellite ASCAT \nscatterometer passes. Moderate to locally fresh northwest winds \nare near the Pacific coast of Baja California. Elsewhere, winds are \nmoderate or weaker. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, \n4 to 6 ft over the remaining Pacific waters, and 1 to 3 ft over the \nGulf of California. No significant deep convection is occurring over \nthe Mexican offshore zones.\nFor the forecast, the  pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure south of \nMexico will continue to induce pulses of fresh to strong north \nwinds, with speeds to near gale force over the Gulf of \nTehuantepec well into next week. Moderate to fresh northwest \nwinds are forecast off of the Baja California peninsula through \nTue, with winds reaching strong speeds near and north of Punta \nEugenia east of 117W. Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain \nrather calm until at least mid next week. Looking ahead, an area \nof low pressure could form several hundred nautical miles south \nof the coast of southern Mexico near the middle portion of next \nweek. Some gradual development of this system is possible \nthereafter while the system moves westward or west-northwestward \nwell south of Mexico. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are over the\nGulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, \nwinds are moderate or weaker across forecast waters, except \nlocally fresh near the entrance to the Gulf of Guayaquil. Seas \nare 5 to ft in long-period southwest over the remainder of \nforecast waters. Numerous moderate to strong convection is \nover the waters off Panama and Costa Rica.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the western Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over \nCentral America will lead to fresh to strong northeast to east gap \nwinds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night before \nweakening early next week with winds diminishing to moderate to \nfresh there. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will pulse south of \nthe monsoon trough through Mon. Large southerly swell will impact \nthe waters mainly from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the \nnext several days, largest by midweek.  \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for more on Tropical \nDepression Hernan. \nSurface ridging extends from 30N128W to near 18N113W. Aside from\nconditions associated with Hernan, moderate to fresh winds are \nacross the remainder of the waters from 15N to 26N to the west of\n124W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft across those waters. Winds are \nmoderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters north of \nthe Equator with seas of 5 to 7 ft, except to 8 ft near the \nEquator between 100W and 116W. Moderate to fresh southeast winds \nand seas of 7 to 9 ft are south of the Equator. Any convection is\ndescribed above in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Depression Hernan is forecast to become a \nremnant low near 16.2N 136.6W by this evening, then move to near \n16.4N 138.9W Sun morning and to west of the area near 16.5N 140.9W \nby Sun evening. It is forecast to dissipate well west of the area by \nearly Tue. Moderate to fresh southeast winds will prevail south of \nthe Equator. Rough seas will pulse on either side near the Equator \nto the east of 130W through the next several days in persistent and \nreinforced southerly swells.\nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well to the \nwest-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California \nPeninsula by the early to middle part of next week. Gradual \ndevelopment of this system is possible thereafter while it moves \ngenerally westward across the western portion of the east \nPacific. Additionally, an area of low pressure could form several\nhundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico near \nthe middle portion of next week. Some gradual development of \nthis system is possible, while the system moves westward or west-\nnorthwestward well south of Mexico.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201739625514893319", "issued": "2026-08-15T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201739625514893319"}