{"id": "1201718049591721991", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-15T15:00:00Z", "msg": "196\nWTPA42 PHFO 151453\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  13\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026\n\nA ragged eye-like feature has formed in radar imagery from the\nSouth Point, Hawaii, radar site, even though Lala's satellite\npresentation has not improved much since the previous advisory.\nRadar velocities are as high as 55-60 kt between 10,000 and 15,000\nft in deep convection to the northeast of the center. Along with\nsatellite estimates, these data support holding Lala's intensity at\n55 kt.\n \nLala's current motion remains west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt, but\nthat is likely to change later today as the circulation begins to\ninteract with terrain of the Big Island. Dynamical model fields\nsuggest that the center may get pulled northwestward into or near\nthe Big Island later this afternoon while at the same time a\nleeside trough or broad low forms west of the island. This may\ncause a discontinuous track that is reflected in the official\nforecast points or track forecast cone. After the cyclone\nreconstitutes itself west of the Big Island, it is likely to turn\ntoward the west on Sunday and continue on that path for several\ndays due to high pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands. A\nshortwave trough moving across the northern Pacific around the\nmiddle of next week may weaken the ridge enough to allow Lala to\nturn toward the west-northwest and then northwest, potentially\napproaching western portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian\nIslands.\n \nLala has about 12 hours left for some strengthening before the\ncenter reaches the Big Island, and the NHC forecast continues to\nshow the storm becoming a hurricane near the southern coast of the\nBig Island. Even if the storm only manages to strengthen slightly,\nthere is no practical difference between a 60-kt tropical storm and\na 65-kt hurricane, especially since hurricane-force gusts are\nexpected on the Big Island regardless. Weakening is expected after\nthe circulation interacts with the Big Island, and it will likely\ntake a few days for the storm to re-organize. Environmental\nconditions appear conducive to support intensification in 3-5 days.\nThe intensity guidance has not changed much of this cycle, and the\nnew NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one.\n \nLala's center is sufficiently well defined in radar imagery that we\nplan to start hourly updates at 6 AM HST (1600 UTC) via the\nTropical Cyclone Update product (HFOTCUCP2). These hourly updates\nwill continue as long as the center remains well defined in radar\nimagery.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of\nHawaii later today, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas\nof higher terrain. Tropical-storm-force winds are already beginning\non the Big Island, and preparations should now be complete.\nTropical-storm-force wind gusts are also beginning across portions\nof the smaller islands and should continue through Sunday.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall will continue to increase over the Big Island this\nmorning and then spread westward across the remainder of the island\nchain over the weekend. This rainfall will produce life-threatening\nflooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.\n \n3. Large and dangerous waves are expected across portions of the\nHawaiian Islands this weekend. Surf is already building along\neast-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores\nas Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause\nlocalized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  15/1500Z 17.8N 154.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 18.7N 155.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  16/1200Z 19.9N 158.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  17/0000Z 20.3N 160.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  17/1200Z 20.5N 163.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  18/0000Z 20.6N 165.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  18/1200Z 20.7N 167.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  19/1200Z 21.6N 170.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  20/1200Z 23.5N 172.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}