{"msg": "752\nAXPZ20 KNHC 150840\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0730 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Hernan is centered near 16.4N 133.8W at\n15/0900 UTC, moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with\ngusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft or 3.0 m. Hernan is once \nagain strongly sheered with scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection between 240 nm and 480 nm in the NE quadrant only. The \ndepression is moving toward the west and this general motion is \nexpected to continue through the next few days. Sow weakening is \nforecast during the few days, and Hernan is forecast to degenerate \nto a remnant low pressure area of Sat. Please read the latest HIGH \nSEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hernan \nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 83.5W north of 06N to across\nportions of Costa Rica and continuing in the western Caribbean \nSea along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, moving west around \n15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough\nsection below.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 102W north of the Equator to\nnear southwestern Mexico near the coast of Guerrero, moving west\naround 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon\ntrough section below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over\nnorthern Colombia at 10N75W to along the southern coast of Panama\nat 07N80W to 10N91W to 06.5N104W. The ITCZ begins there and \nextends to southeast of Tropical Depression Hernan at 13N127W. \nNumerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 05N\nto 09N between 77W and 85W. Isolated to widely scattered \nmoderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 390 nm\nsouth of the monsoon trough between 85W and 98W, and within 300\nnm either side of the ITCZ between 98W and 127W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nFresh to locally strong N gap winds are occurring over the Gulf\nof Tehuantepec as measured by recent ASCAT scatterometer passes.\nModerate to locally fresh NW winds are near the Pacific coast of\nBaja California, with moderate to fresh SW winds in the northern\nGulf of California north of 30N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate \nor weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 4-6 ft \nover the remaining Pacific waters, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of \nCalifornia. No significant deep convection is occurring over the \nMexican offshore zones.\nFor the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of America will\ncontinue to force pulses of fresh to strong N winds with locally\nnear- gale speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec for the next \nseveral days. Additionally, moderate to fresh NW winds are \nforecast off of the Baja California peninsula through Mon night, \nlocally strong at times. Moderate to fresh SE winds may move up \nthe central to the northern Gulf of California Mon night and Tue.\nElsewhere, winds and seas should remain quiescent until at least\nmid next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form\nseveral hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern \nMexico by the early to middle part of next week. Some gradual \ndevelopment of this system is possible thereafter while the \nsystem moves westward or west-northwestward well south of \nMexico. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong NE to E gap winds are observed by recent OSCAT-3\nscatterometer data over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas \n5-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker across forecast \nwaters, except locally fresh near the entrance to the Gulf of \nGuayaquil. Seas are 4-7 ft in SW swell over the remainder of \nforecast waters. Scattered to numerous convection is present as \ndescribed with the monsoon trough above over the waters off\nPanama and southern Costa Rica.\nFor the forecast, high pressure over the W Caribbean will \ncontribute toward fresh to strong E gap winds over the Gulf of \nPapagayo region through Sun night before weakening early next \nweek with winds diminishing to moderate to fresh there. Moderate \nto fresh southerly winds will pulse south of the monsoon trough \nthrough Mon. Large southerly swell will impact the waters mainly \nfrom Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the next several \ndays, largest by midweek.\n \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for more on Tropical \nDepression Hernan. \nSurface ridging extends from 30N128W to 181N113W. Aside from \nconditions associated with Hernan, moderate to fresh winds are \nacross the remainder of the waters from 15N to 26N to the west \nof 124W. Seas are 7-10 ft across those waters. Winds are \nmoderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters north of \nthe Equator with seas of 5-7 ft, locally 8 ft near the Equator\nbetween 100W and 116W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 7-9 ft \nseas are found south of the Equator. Any convection is described \nabove in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Depression Hernan will become a remnant\nlow and move to 16.5N 135.5W this afternoon, 16.6N 137.8W Sun \nmorning, 16.7N 139.9W Sun afternoon, moving west of the area to\nnear 16.8N 141.9W Mon morning, 16.8N 143.9W Mon afternoon, and \ndissipate Tue morning. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail \nsouth of the Equator. Rough seas will pulse on either side near \nthe Equator to the east of 130W through the next several days in \npersistent and reinforced southerly swells.\nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well to the \nwest-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California \nPeninsula by the early to middle part of next week. Gradual \ndevelopment of this system is possible thereafter while it moves \ngenerally westward across the western portion of the east \nPacific. Additionally, an area of low pressure could form several\nhundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico by \nthe early to middle part of next week. Some gradual development \nof this system is possible thereafter while the system moves \nwestward or west-northwestward well south of Mexico.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201644620994936839", "issued": "2026-08-15T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201644620994936839"}