{"msg": "615\nAXNT20 KNHC 150431\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0430 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCaribbean Gale Warning: the pressure gradient has tighten between\nthe surface ridging over the W Atlantic and the Colombian Low. \nThis is accelerating winds in the south-central Caribbean, \nreaching gale-force off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela \nthrough tomorrow morning, then again on Sat night through Sun \nmorning. Very rough seas to near 15 ft will build near and \ndownwind of these winds. \nPlease see the latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W from 05N to 20N, \nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the\nwave environment.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave axis lies along 37W, from 05N to\n20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection is noted W of the wave to 42W. While environmental \nconditions are conducive for some development over the next few \ndays, the system is expected to encounter strong upper-level winds \nnext week, decreasing its chances for development. There is a\nmedium chance for tropical development of this system in the next\n7 days.\nAnother central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 58W\nfrom 06N to 20N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered \nshowers are noted in the wave environment.\nThe axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W, moving \nwestward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted \nwith this wave. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and extends \nsouthwestward to 08N58W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical \nWaves section above. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA 1020 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf, near 28N89W, \nleading toward gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the \nforecast waters. Seas are 1-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is\nnoted within 60 NM of a surface trough extending from 24N90W to \n28N82W.\nFor the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the \nnorth-central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening \nsome by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E\nto SE winds across the basin. Pulses of fresh winds will be occurring\nnorth and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of \nCampeche each evening and night, as a surface trough migrates from\nthe Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to \nmoderate seas are expected through the forecast period. By \nmidweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds over the NW \nand west-central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between \nthe high pressure and lower pressures over north-central Mexico.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning \nin effect for the south-central basin tonight.\nOutside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and \nmoderate seas are occurring over the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to \nmoderate winds prevail over the remaining waters with seas 3-6 ft.\nScattered moderate convection is occurring north of 16N west of \n81W in the NW Caribbean.\nFor the forecast, fresh to strong winds over most of the east and\ncentral Caribbean will prevail through this weekend. Peak winds \nto minimal gale force are expected offshore Colombia, and in the \nGulf of Venezuela tonight and Sat night. A tropical wave, with \naxis along 58W, Invest AL92, will impact the Leeward Islands \ntonight and Sat. Even though development is highly unlikely, \nstrong gusty winds, rough seas and areas of heavy rain are \npossible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on \nSaturday. These weather conditions are forecast to shift westward \ntoward the central and SW Caribbean, including the Greater \nAntilles and the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. \nAfterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W\nCaribbean. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nRidging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high at \n26N63W. Winds associated with a tropical wave, Invest AL92, are \nfresh to strong from 10N-19N between 51W-63W with seas 8-12 ft. \nFresh to strong trades are occurring just north of Hispaniola with\nseas 5-7 ft. Along the coast of Western Sahara and through the \nCanary Islands, NE winds are fresh to strong with seas 6-8 ft. \nElsewhere the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined \nwith the passage of two tropical waves through the Caribbean Sea \nwill cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun \nnight. Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate \nfor the next few days. A weak cold front will slowly push across \nthe northern forecast border east of 70W on Sun, causing a wind \nshift to the NW and then N but with little change in wind speeds \non Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will stall late on Monday \nbefore dissipating by midweek. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201595720873771015", "issued": "2026-08-15T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201595720873771015"}