{"id": "1201577552738516999", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-15T03:00:00Z", "msg": "299\nWTPA42 PHFO 150259\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  11\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026\n \nLala has changed little in organization during the past several \nhours, with most of the deep convection remaining over and north of \nthe center. However, data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane \nHunter aircraft indicate that the cyclone has strengthened some this \nafternoon. Pressure observations from nearby NDBC buoy 51004 have \nalso been useful in assessing the cyclone as it passes close to the \nstation. Based on a blend of the aircraft data, buoy observations, \nand overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is set at \n55 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt. A mid-level\nhigh pressure system anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands should\ncontinue to steer Lala generally west-northwestward during the next\nseveral days. Some slowing of the forward motion is possible as the\ncyclone approaches the Big Island and begins to interact with the\nisland's terrain on Saturday. Short-term deviations in the track are\nalso possible during this time. After passing near or over the\nsouthern portion of the Big Island, Lala could make a subtle turn\ntoward the northwest in the lee of the island before resuming a\nwest-northwestward motion south of the smaller islands through the\nremainder of the weekend. The latest NHC track forecast is very\nsimilar to the previous advisory and remains close to the mult-model\nconsensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.\n \nSome additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 h\nwhile environmental conditions remain generally favorable. Although\nmid-level dry air continues to be a limiting factor, the inner\ncirculation could become somewhat more compact and organized as Lala\napproaches the southern portion of the Big Island. The NHC forecast\ntherefore continues to show Lala reaching hurricane strength near\nthe time it reaches the Big Island on Saturday. Interaction with the\nisland's terrain should then disrupt the low-level circulation and\nresult in weakening, with increasing vertical wind shear associated\nwith an upper-level low providing an additional negative influence\nlater in the weekend. Some re-strengthening is forecast early next\nweek as vertical wind shear relaxes and Lala remains over warm sea\nsurface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar\nto the previous advisory and remains near the middle- to upper-end\nof the guidance envelope.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of \nHawaii Saturday, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of \nhigher terrain. Preparations should be rushed to completion this \nevening before tropical-storm-force winds begin.  \nTropical-storm-force winds are also expected across portions of the \nsmaller islands this weekend.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall will reach the Big Island this evening and spread\nwestward across the remainder of the island chain this weekend. This\nrainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,\nespecially in areas of steep terrain.\n \n3. Large and dangerous waves are expected across portions of the\nHawaiian Islands this weekend. Surf is already building along\neast-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores\nas Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause\nlocalized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  15/0300Z 17.6N 152.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 18.0N 154.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 18.8N 155.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 20.0N 158.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  17/0000Z 20.7N 161.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  17/1200Z 20.9N 163.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  18/0000Z 21.0N 166.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  19/0000Z 21.5N 170.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  20/0000Z 22.8N 173.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}