{"msg": "989\nAXPZ20 KNHC 150247\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0130 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Hernan is centered near 16.2N 132.9W at\n15/0300 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with\ngusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft or 3.0 m. Hernan has\nscattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within\n120 nm in the NE quadrant with another cluster displaced beyond\nand between 180 nm and 390 nm also in the NE quadrant. The \ndepression is moving toward the west and this motion is expected\nto continue through early next week. Slow weakening is forecast\nduring the next 48 hours, and Hernan is forecast to become a \npost-tropical cyclone within the next day or so. Please read the\nlatest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane \nCenter at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml\nand the latest Hernan NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory \nat www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 82W north of 06N to across\nportions of western Costa Rica and continuing in the western\nCaribbean Sea, moving west around 20 to 25 kt. Nearby convection\nis discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 100.5W north of the Equator \nto near southwestern Mexico near the coast of Guerrero, moving \nwest around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the \nITCZ/monsoon trough section below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1006 mb low pressure over\nnorthern Colombia at 08.5N75W to along southern Panama near\n07N80W to 09N91W to 07N103W. The ITCZ begins there and extends to\nsoutheast of Tropical Depression Hernan at 15N126W. Isolated to\nwidely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted\nfrom 05N to 10N between 80W and 85W, from 03N to 08.5N between\n86W and 100.5W, from 04N to 13N between 100.5W and 117W, and\nwithin 270 nm either side of the ITCZ between 117W and 126W.\nSimilar convection is from 04N to 09N between 128W and 136W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nFresh to locally strong N gap winds are occurring over the Gulf\nof Tehuantepec this evening. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds\nare near the Pacific coast of Baja California. Elsewhere, winds \nare moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft over the Gulf of \nTehuantepec, 4-6 ft over the remaining Pacific waters, and 1-3 ft\nover the Gulf of California. No significant deep convection is \noccurring over the Mexican offshore zones.\nFor the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of America will \ncontinue to force pulses of fresh to strong with locally near-\ngale N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec for the next several \ndays. Additionally, moderate to fresh NW winds are forecast off \nof the Baja California peninsula through Mon night, locally\nstrong at times. Moderate to fresh SE winds may move up the Gulf\nof California Mon night and Tue. Elsewhere, winds and seas \nshould remain quiescent until at least mid next week. Looking\nahead, an area of low pressure could form several hundred\nnautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico by the \nearly to middle part of next week. Some gradual development of \nthis system is possible thereafter while the system moves \nwestward or west-northwestward well south of Mexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong NE to E gap winds are observed this evening over\nthe Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, winds \nare moderate or weaker across forecast waters. Seas are 4-7 ft in\nSW swell over the remainder of forecast waters. Isolated to\nwidely scattered convection is present as described with the\nmonsoon trough above.\nFor the forecast, high pressure over the W Caribbean will \ncontribute toward fresh to strong E gap winds over the Gulf of \nPapagayo region through Sun night before weakening early next \nweek with winds diminishing to moderate to fresh there. Moderate\nto fresh southerly winds will pulse south of the monsoon trough\nthrough Mon. Large southerly swell will impact the waters mainly\nfrom Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the next several\ndays.\n \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for more on Tropical \nDepression Hernan. \nSurface ridging extends from 30N131W to 27N119W to 17N111W. \nAside from conditions associated with Hernan, moderate to fresh\nwinds are across the remainder of the waters from 14N to 24N to\nthe west of 122W. Seas are 7-10 ft across those waters. Winds \nare moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters north \nof the Equator with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds \nand 7-9 ft seas are found south of the Equator. Any convection is\ndescribed above in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Depression Hernan will move to 16.3N\n134.5W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 16.4N \n136.6W Sat evening, 16.5N 138.6W Sun morning, 16.6N 140.8W Sun \nevening, 16.7N 142.5W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening.\nModerate to fresh SE winds will prevail south of the Equator.\nRough seas will pulse on either side near the Equator to the east\nof 130W through the next several days in persistent and\nreinforced southerly swells.\nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well to the \nwest-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California \nPeninsula by the early to middle part of next week. Gradual \ndevelopment of this system is possible thereafter while it moves \ngenerally westward across the western portion of the east \nPacific. Additionally, an area of low pressure could form several\nhundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico by \nthe early to middle part of next week. Some gradual development \nof this system is possible thereafter while the system moves \nwestward or west-northwestward well south of Mexico.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201575133716742151", "issued": "2026-08-15T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201575133716742151"}