{"msg": "431\nAXNT20 KNHC 142243\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2215 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCaribbean Gale Warning: Tonight the pressure gradient will \ntighten between the Bermuda High sitting anomalously equatorward \nat 27N60W and the Colombian Low. This will accelerate winds in \nthe south-central Caribbean, with winds reaching to gale-force \noff Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and tomorrow\nmorning . Very rough seas to near 15 ft will build near and \ndownwind of these gales in the southwest Caribbean tonight. Please\nsee the latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W from 05N to 20N, \nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen\nfrom 08N-12N and east of 27W.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave axis lies along 35W, from 05N to\n20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and\nisolated strong convection is from 08N-13N between 37W-43W. \nWhile environmental conditions are conducive for some \ndevelopment over the next few days, the system - denoted as Invest\nAL94 - could encounter strong upper-level winds next week, \ndecreasing its chances for development. There is a low chance for \ntropical development of this system in the next 48 hours, and a \nmedium chance for development in the next 7 days.\nAnother central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 56W\nfrom 06N to 20N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered \nmoderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N-15N\nbetween 53W-61W. This system - denoted as Invest AL92 - is moving\ninto a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and \nthe potential of development continues to decrease. Even though \ndevelopment is highly unlikely, strong gusty winds and areas of \nheavy rain are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles \ntonight and on Saturday. There is a low chance for tropical \ndevelopment of this system both in the next 48 hours and the next \n7 days.\nThe axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W, moving \nwestward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is seen \nwith this wave. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 22N17W and extends \nsouthwestward to 10N38W to 12N52W and then to 09N56W. Convection\nis discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA 1022 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf, near 28N89W,\nleading toward gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the\nforecast waters. Seas are 1-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is\nnoted within 60 NM of a surface trough extending from 24N90W to \n28N82W.\nHigh pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by\na 1020 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas\nprevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center. \nModerate to fresh E to SE winds associated with a surface trough \nare ongoing over the SW Gulf waters along with moderate seas to 6 \nft. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, a high pressure center will remain over the \nnorth- central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening \nsome by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E\nto SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds \noccurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay\nof Campeche each evening and night, as a surface trough migrates \nfrom the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to \nmoderate seas are expected through the forecast period. Looking \nahead, by midweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds \nover the NW and west-central Gulf as the pressure gradient \ntightens between the high pressure and lower pressures over north-\ncentral Mexico.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning \nin effect for the south-central basin effective tonight.\nThe pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and \nthe Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force trades\naccompanied by seas 7-11 ft over the central Caribbean waters. \nFresh to strong trade winds and moderate seas are occurring over \nthe Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the \nremaining waters with seas 3-6 ft. Isolated moderate deep\nconvection is occurring north of 16N west of 81W in the NW\nCaribbean.\nFor the forecast, a tropical wave, with axis along 78W, combined \nwith the Bermuda-Azores High located north of the region will \ncontinue to support fresh to strong winds over most of the east \nand central Caribbean this weekend. Peak winds to minimal gale \nforce are expected offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela\ntonight and Sat night. A second and stronger tropical wave, with \naxis along 55W, Invest AL92, will impact the Leeward Islands \ntonight and Sat. Even though development is highly unlikely, \nstrong gusty winds, rough seas and areas of heavy rain are \npossible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on \nSaturday. These weather conditions are forecast to shift westward \ntoward the central and SW Caribbean, including the Greater \nAntilles and the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. \nAfterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W\nCaribbean. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nRidging associated with the Bermuda and Azores Highs is situated\nmore equatorward than usual, siting along 28N80W to a 1025 mb high\nat 27N60W to 31N43W. Winds associated with a vigorous tropical\nwave - Invest AL92 - are fresh to strong from 12N-19N between\n51W-63W with seas 7-11 ft. Fresh to strong trades are occurring\njust north of Hispaniola with seas 5-7 ft. Along the coast of\nWestern Sahara and through the Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh\nto strong with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere the trades are moderate or\nweaker with seas 3-6 ft.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined \nwith the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will \ncause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun \nnight. Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate \nfor the next few days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will \nslowly push across the northern forecast border east of 70W on \nSun, causing a wind shift to the NW and then N but with little \nchange in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will \nstall late on Monday before dissipating by midweek. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201527222560522247", "issued": "2026-08-14T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201527222560522247"}