{"id": "1201502054532087815", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-14T21:00:00Z", "msg": "201\nWTPA42 PHFO 142035\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  10\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026\n\nLala is gradually becoming better organized.  Satellite images show \nthat the circulation appears less elongated and deep convection has \nincreased some near the center.  Despite the improved appearance, \nthe latest satellite intensity estimates suggest that Lala has not \nstrengthened yet. A very recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds \naround 40 kt north of the center, which is near most of the \nobjective and subjective satellite estimates.  The initial intensity \nis held at a possibly generous 50 kt. Both the NOAA and Air Force \nHurricane Hunters will be investigating Lala later today, and the \ndata they collect will be helpful to assess the storm's structure \nand intensity.\n \nLala is moving a little faster to the west-northwest at 12 kt, and \nthis general motion is expected to persist during the next few days \nas a mid-level high pressure system remains anchored north of the \nHawaiian Islands.  When Lala is near the Big Island, short-term \ndeviations in the track are also likely due to local terrain \ninteractions, as depicted in many of the models.  In fact, the model \ntrends and latest guidance now support a landfall on the Big Island \non Saturday.  After Lala passes the Big Island, a continued \nwest-northwestward track south of the remainder of the islands is \nexpected Saturday night and Sunday.  The NHC track forecast is \nmostly unchanged from the previous one, and is based on a blend of \nthe latest Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids, which have been \nperforming quite well for this storm.\n \nSteady strengthening is expected during the next day or so since the \nstorm appears to be consolidating while environmental conditions \nremain generally favorable.  Lala is expected to become a category 1 \nhurricane when it reaches the Big Island.  Once it interacts with \nland, Lala is forecast to weaken back to a tropical storm and an \nincrease in shear, associated with an upper-level low, could also \ncontribute to weakening later in the weekend. Re-strengthening is \nforecast early next week after Lala pulls away from the main \nHawaiian Islands.  The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to \nthe previous advisory and remains near the upper end of the \nguidance envelope.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected on the Big Island of \nHawaii Saturday, with the strongest wind gusts expected in areas of \nhigher terrain. Preparations should be rushed to completion today \nbefore tropical-storm-force winds begin. \n \n2. Heavy rainfall will reach the Big Island later today, and spread \nwestward across the remainder of the island chain this weekend. This \nrainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, \nespecially in areas of steep terrain.\n \n3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are\nexpected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along exposed\nwindward and southern shores. This heavy surf may cause localized \ncoastal flooding and significant beach erosion.\n  \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/2100Z 17.2N 150.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 17.8N 152.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  15/1800Z 18.4N 154.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  16/0600Z 19.4N 156.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  16/1800Z 20.2N 159.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  17/0600Z 20.6N 162.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  17/1800Z 20.9N 164.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  18/1800Z 21.5N 168.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  19/1800Z 22.6N 171.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}