{"msg": "448\nAXNT20 KNHC 141719\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCaribbean Gale Warning: Today, the pressure gradient will tighten\nbetween subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic \nalong 27N and the Colombian low. This will accelerate winds in \nthe south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale-force off\nColombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela on tonight. Very rough seas\nto 15 ft will build near and downwind of these gales in the \nsouthwest Caribbean tonight and again Sat night. Please see the \nlatest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane \nCenter at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml \nfor further details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA new tropical wave has been introduced along 19W from 05N to 20N,\nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen\nfrom 09N to 16N and E of 26W.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 34W, from 05N to 20N, moving \nwest at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N\nto 14N between 35W and 42W. Environmental conditions are forecast\nto be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical\ndepression could form this weekend or early next week while the \nwave moves westward or west-northwestward across the central \ntropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical development \nof this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for \ndevelopment in the next 7 days.\nA tropical wave has been analyzed from 06N55W to near 20N51W,\nmoving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated \nstrong convection is occurring from 06N to 17N between 50W and \n62W. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level\nwinds and dry air, and the potential of development continues to \ndecrease. There is now a low chance of this system developing into\na tropical cyclone. Even though development is unlikely, gusty \nwinds and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the \nLesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday.\nThe axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W, moving \nwestward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is seen\nwith this wave. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 22N17W and extends \nsouthwestward to 10N38W to 12N52W and then to 09N56W. Convection\nis discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by\na 1020 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas\nprevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center. \nModerate to fresh E to SE winds associated with a surface trough \nare ongoing over the SW Gulf waters along with moderate seas to 6 \nft. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends westward across \nFlorida and into the Gulf region, and will change little through \nSat before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly\ngentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of\nfresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and\ninto the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface \ntrough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW \nGulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast \nperiod. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning \nin effect for the south-central basin effective tonight.\nThe pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and \nthe Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds \nover the central Caribbean waters. Moderate to rough seas are\nongoing over these waters. Fresh to strong trade winds and \nmoderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate \nwinds and slight to moderate seas prevail over the remaining \nwaters.\nFor the forecast, a tropical wave, with axis along 75W, combined \nwith the Bermuda High north of the region will enhance the trades \nover the central Caribbean through Sat. Peak winds should reach \ngale- force just north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela \ntonight and Sat night. A second tropical wave, with axis along \n52W, Invest AL92, should start impacting the Leeward Islands \ntonight and Sat. Strong to near gale-force winds, rough seas and \nareas of heavy rain are expected with the passage of the latter \nwave. These weather conditions will shift westward toward the \ncentral Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including the Windward\nPassage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards, the tropical wave\nmay weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92\nlocated over the central tropical Atlantic.\nSurface ridging associated with the Azores High dominates the\nentire subtropical Atlantic waters supporting moderate to fresh E\nto SE winds S of 25N and W of 30W along with moderate seas. N of \n25N, winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate. \nOtherwise, fresh to strong winds are occurring near the Canary \nIslands SE toward the coast of Africa. Upper level divergence\nassociated with an upper level trough continues to support \nscattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas and along\nthe east coast of FL.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge, combined with \nthe passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will cause \nfresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night. \nElsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the \nnext few days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will slowly push \nacross the northern forecast border east of 70W on Sun, causing a \nwind shift to the NW and then N but with little change in wind \nspeeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will stall late on \nMonday before dissipating by midweek. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201463537857527815", "issued": "2026-08-14T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201463537857527815"}