{"id": "1201433123220946951", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-14T15:00:00Z", "msg": "443\nWTPA42 PHFO 141444\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number   9\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026\n\nLala has remained relatively steady state overnight.  The storm \ncontinues to be asymmetric, with most of the deep convection and \ntropical-storm-force winds on its north side.  Earlier data from an \nAir Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure \nhas been generally unchanged around 997 mb and the maximum winds \nstill near 50 kt.  The aircraft data and an OSCAT pass from around \n09Z indicate that the wind field has contracted, which could be a \nsign that circulation is becoming more compact and might lead to \nstrengthening soon. \n \nLala is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and this general motion \nis expected to persist during the next few days as a mid-level high \npressure system remains anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands. This \nmotion should take the core of Lala very near or over the Big Island \non Saturday.  When Lala is near the Big Island, short-term \ndeviations in the track are also likely due to local terrain \ninteractions, as depicted in many of the models.  After Lala passes \nthe Big Island, a continued west-northwestward track south of the \nremainder of the islands is expected Saturday night and Sunday.  The \nNHC track forecast is mostly unchanged from the previous one, and is \nbased on a blend of the latest Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids, \nwhich have been performing quite well for this storm.\n \nSteady strengthening is expected during the next day or so since the \nstorm appears to be consolidating while environmental conditions \nremain generally favorable.  Lala is still forecast to become a \ncategory 1 hurricane when it reaches the Big Island.  Land \ninteraction and an increase in wind shear should result in Lala \nweakening back to a tropical storm as it moves south of the \nremainder of the island chain later in the weekend.  \nRe-strengthening is forecast early next week as vertical wind shear \nrelaxes and Lala remains over warm sea surface temperatures.  The \nlatest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory \nand remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane as it \napproaches the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday. A Hurricane Warning \nremains in effect for the Big Island and a Tropical Storm Warning \nhas been issued for Maui County. Tropical Storm Watches have been \nissued for Oahu and Kauai Counties. Winds are expected to be the \nstrongest in areas of higher terrain.  \n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to \nimpact the Big Island today, spreading westward across the \nremainder of the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may \nproduce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas \nof steep terrain.\n \n3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are\nexpected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along exposed\nwindward and southern shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf\nmay cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/1500Z 16.7N 149.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 17.2N 151.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 18.0N 153.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  16/0000Z 18.7N 155.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  16/1200Z 19.6N 158.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  17/0000Z 20.2N 160.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  17/1200Z 20.7N 163.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  18/1200Z 21.2N 166.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  19/1200Z 22.3N 170.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}