{"id": "1201432038084640775", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-14T15:00:00Z", "msg": "222\nWTPZ43 KNHC 141439\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026\n500 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026\n \nAfter being devoid of convection through much of the night, an \nuptick in showers and thunderstorms is now occurring north and east \nof the completely exposed center. An earlier microwave pass \nindicated established bands to the north and east of the system, \nwith less-defined organization to the south and west. However, \nobjective and subjective intensity estimates range from 25-41 kt. \nGiven these estimates and the recent increase in convection, the \nintensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe tropical storm has continued on a southward track longer than \npreviously forecast, but it has begun to turn toward the \nsouth-southwest over the past few hours as it is steered by a \nlow-level ridge positioned between Hernan and Tropical Storm Lala, \nwhich is approaching the Hawaiian Island chain. A turn toward the \nsouthwest, followed by a west-southwestward motion, is expected \nlater today and through the weekend as a mid-level ridge builds to \nthe northwest. Given the storm's farther south initial position, the \nlatest NHC track has been shifted to the left of the previous track \nand lies between the previous forecast and various consensus aids. \n \nDespite moving over warm sea surface temperatures, Hernan continues \nto contend with strong west-northwesterly wind shear. Mid-level dry \nair is also expected to wrap around the western and southern \nportions of the circulation today and tonight, causing gradual \nweakening. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS \nsuggest that organized convection will dissipate later today or \ntonight, although a closed circulation could persist this weekend. \nThe latest NHC forecast calls for Hernan to weaken to a remnant low \nwithin 24 h and open into a trough by 72 h. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/1500Z 15.4N 132.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 15.4N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 15.1N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  16/0000Z 15.0N 136.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  16/1200Z 14.9N 138.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  17/0000Z 15.1N 141.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}