{"msg": "745\nAXNT20 KNHC 141055\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1050 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCaribbean Gale Warning: Today, the pressure gradient will tighten\nbetween subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic \nalong 27N and the Colombian low. This will accelerate winds in \nthe south-central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale-force off\nColombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela on tonight. Very rough seas\nto 13 ft will build near and downwind of these gales in the \nsouthwest Caribbean tonight and Sat night. Please see the latest \nNWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at \nwebsite https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further \ndetails.\nCentral Tropical Atlantic (AL92):\nShowers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located\nabout 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles or near 50W have\ncontinued to become less organized. This system is moving into a\nregion of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the\npossibility of development is decreasing. Regardless of\ndevelopment, interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to\nmonitor the progress of this system since gusty winds and areas of\nheavy rain are possible across these islands Friday night and\nSaturday. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development \nin the next 48 hours.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, from 06N to 20N, moving \nwest at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N\nto 13N between 33W and 41W. Environmental conditions are forecast\nto be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical\ndepression could form late this week or this weekend while the \nwave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and \ncentral tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical \ndevelopment of this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium \nchance for development in the next 7 days.\nPlease see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical\nwave with axis near 50W. \nThe axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W, moving \nwestward at about 15 to 20 kt. Most of the convection associated\nwith the wave has dissipated.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends \nsouthwestward to 11N30W to 11N50W to 09N56W. Aside from \nconvection noted in the tropical waves and SPECIAL FEATURES \nsection above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis from 07N to 16N between 13W and 25W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by\na 1019 mb high near 27N85W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas\nprevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center.\nModerate to fresh E to SE winds associated with a surface trough\nare ongoing over the SW Gulf waters along with moderate seas to 6\nft. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, surface ridging will change little through Sat \nbefore weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly \ngentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of \nfresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and \ninto the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface \ntrough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW \nGulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast \nperiod.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning \nin effect for the south-central basin effective tonight.\nThe pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and \nthe Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds \nover the central Caribbean waters. Moderate to rough seas are\nongoing over these waters. Fresh to strong trade winds and \nmoderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate \nwinds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail over the remaining \nwaters.\nFor the forecast, a tropical wave along 74W combined with the \nBermuda High north of the region will enhance the trades over the \ncentral Caribbean through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale-force \njust north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and \nSat night. A second tropical wave along 50W, Invest AL92, should \nstart impacting the Leeward Islands this evening. Strong to near \ngale-force winds along with areas of heavy rain are expected \ntonight and Sat. These weather conditions will shift westward \ntoward the central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including \nthe Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards, the \ntropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean. Note\nthat if Invest AL92 forms into a tropical cyclone, the winds and \nwaves expected may be higher than indicated here. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92\nlocated over the central tropical Atlantic.\nSurface ridging associated with the Azores High dominates the\nentire subtropical Atlantic waters supporting moderate to fresh E\nto SE winds S of 25N W of 30W along with moderate seas. N of 25N,\nwinds are moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate.\nOtherwise, fresh to strong winds are occurring near the Canary \nIslands SE toward the coast of Africa. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge combined with \ntwo tropical waves passing through the Caribbean Sea will cause \nfresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night. \nElsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the \nnext few days. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will slowly push \nacross our northern border east of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift \nto northeast but with little change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon \nnorth of 28N. The front will stall late on Monday before \ndissipating by midweek. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201388050049040391", "issued": "2026-08-14T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201388050049040391"}