{"id": "1201361157638291463", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-14T09:00:00Z", "msg": "031\nWTPZ43 KNHC 140838\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026\n1100 PM HST Thu Aug 13 2026\n\nAlthough Hernan remains a convection-less swirl of low- to \nmid-level clouds, recent synthetic aperture radar data shows that \nthe system continues to maintain tropical storm-force winds. Thus, \nthe initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 35 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is 180/4 kt, with the cyclone currently being \nsteered by a low-level ridge between it and Tropical Storm Lala to \nthe west. During the next couple of days, Hernan should turn\ngradually southwestward and westward as the large-scale eastern \nPacific high to the north provides a more westward steering \ncurrent. There is little change in either the guidance or forecast \ntrack since the previous advisory.\n \nHernan is expected to weaken due to a combination of strong \nwesterly shear and dry air entrainment, and the storm is forecast \nto weaken to a depression on Friday. The latest simulated satellite \nimagery from the ECMWF and GFS models suggest that the associated \nconvection will dissipate completely between 12-24 h, and based on \nthis premise the system is shown decaying to a remnant low at 24 h \nand into a trough by 72 h.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/0900Z 16.1N 131.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 15.9N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  15/0600Z 15.5N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  15/1800Z 15.2N 135.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  16/0600Z 15.1N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  16/1800Z 15.1N 140.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}