{"msg": "026\nAXPZ20 KNHC 140838\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0800 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Hernan is centered near 16.1N 131.9W at 14/0900\nUTC, moving south at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45\nkt. Peak seas are around 13 ft or 4 m. Hernan is a very sheered\ntropical cyclone with numerous moderate isolated strong \nconvection noted between 180 nm and 510 nm in the NE quadrant of\nHernan. Hernan is moving toward the south, and this general \nmotion is expected to continue with a turn towards the south-\nsouthwest on Fri. A gradual turn to the west is forecast on \nSaturday with that motion continuing through the weekend.\nHernan is forecast to become a tropical depression on Fri and a \npost-tropical cyclone early Sat. Please read the latest HIGH \nSEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nHernan NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 97W north of the Equator to\nsouthern Mexico just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving \nwest around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the \nITCZ/monsoon trough section below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure over \nnorthern Colombia near 10N74.5W to 09.5N85W to 07N102W. The ITCZ\nextends from 07N102W to 10.5N112W to 07.5N125W to 09N130W. \nIsolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is from 03N to 08N between 77W and 80W, from 02N to\n05.5N between 91W and 101W, from 06N to 11N between 101W and\n107W, from 06N to 13N between 107W and 113W, and within 360 nm\nsouth of the monsoon trough between 113W and 130W. Similar \nconvection is noted from 00N to 09N between 130W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nFresh to locally strong northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of\nTehuantepec. Moderate to locally fresh SW gap winds are \nimpacting the northern Gulf of California as confirmed by recent\nASCAT scatterometer data. NW moderate to locally fresh winds are\nnearshore of Baja California, mainly the southern portion. \nGentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere. Moderate seas are \nover the open waters off Mexico, with slight to moderate seas \nover the central and southern Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, fresh SW winds in the the northern Gulf of \nCalifornia will diminish by the afternoon. Pulses of fresh to \nstrong gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nthrough early next week, near gale-force overnight at times, \nalong with occasionally rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh NW \nwinds are forecast off Baja California through the next several \ndays. A moderate pressure gradient will promote mostly gentle to \nmoderate winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico \nalong with moderate seas. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh easterly gap winds and moderate seas persist across and \ndownstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh NW to\nN winds are in the Gulf of Panama, with similar wind speeds but\nout of the south near the Gulf of Guayaquil. Gentle to moderate \nwinds and moderate seas in S to SW swell prevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and occasionally\nrough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region through early\nnext week. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will pulse\nin the Gulf of Panama tonight. Moderate winds may freshen south \nof the monsoon trough this weekend. Gentle to moderate winds are \nforecast elsewhere. Large southerly swell will start to move into\nthe region today and tonight, then again early next week, with \nrough seas from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands Mon and\nTue. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are \nexpected elsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see Special Features section above for more on Tropical \nStorm Hernan. \nBroad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. Outside the\nimmediate area impacted by Hernan, the pressure gradient between\nthe ridge, Hernan, and Tropical Storm Lala in the central \nPacific is supporting fresh to locally strong winds, and rough \nseas, from 16N to 22N between 126W and 137W. Rough seas in \nsoutherly swell cover the waters south of 06N between 95W and \n127W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail \nelsewhere, locally fresh south of the Equator and west of 100W.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Hernan will weaken to a tropical \ndepression near 15.9N 132.4W this afternoon, become a remnant \nlow and move to 15.5N 133.9W Sat morning, 15.2N 135.8W Sat \nafternoon, 15.1N 137.8W Sun morning, 15.1N 140.1W Sun afternoon, \nand dissipate Mon morning, when remnant rough seas should also \nsubside. Elsewhere, southerly swell will maintain rough seas over\nthe discussion waters south of about 05N between 95W and 130W \nthrough the end of the week, then south of 02N between 95W and \n125W this weekend. Another set of southerly swell is forecast to \nbring rough seas to the waters south of 06N between 90W and 125W \nearly next week. Main moderate or weaker winds will prevail \nelsewhere, except locally fresh near a passing tropical wave \ncurrently near 97W, and in the northwest waters where the \npressure gradient will be regionally tight.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201361085772562439", "issued": "2026-08-14T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201361085772562439"}