{"id": "1201360761601327111", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-14T09:00:00Z", "msg": "003\nWTPA42 PHFO 140836\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number   8\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Thu Aug 13 2026\n \nLala has shown little change in organization over the past several \nhours. Most of the deep convection remains confined to the northern \nportion of the circulation, with little deep convection occurring \nsouth of the center. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft \ninvestigating Lala has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 55 \nkt. In addition, 0621 UTC METOP-B and 0645 UTC METOP-C scatterometer \npasses provided useful information for adjusting the \ntropical-storm-force wind radii and confirmed the highly asymmetric \nnature of the circulation, with much weaker winds across the \nsouthern semicircle. Based on all of the available data, the initial \nintensity is held at a generous 50 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt. The \noverall track forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged. A \nstrong mid-level ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands should continue \nto steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next several \ndays. The cyclone's forward motion is forecast to slow somewhat as \nit approaches and begins to interact with the terrain of the Big \nIsland on Saturday. Some short-term deviations in the track are also \npossible during this time due to these terrain interactions. Lala \nshould then resume a faster west-northwestward motion as it passes \nsouth of the smaller islands through the remainder of the weekend, \nand south of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Sunday night into \nearly next week. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to \nthe previous advisory and remains close to the multi-model consensus \n(HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.\n \nEnvironmental conditions are expected to remain generally favorable \nfor strengthening during the next couple of days, with the primary \nlimiting factor being the dry mid-level air that continues to be \nentrained into the cyclone's large circulation. Steady strengthening \nis forecast, and Lala is expected to become a hurricane as it \napproaches the Big Island on Saturday. Interaction with the terrain \nof the Big Island could result in short-term changes in the \ncyclone's structure and intensity during its closest approach. \nThereafter, a progressively drier mid-level environment, along with \nsome increase in westerly vertical wind shear, should result in \nweakening as Lala passes south of the smaller islands through the \nremainder of the weekend. Some re-strengthening is forecast early \nnext week as vertical wind shear relaxes and Lala remains over warm \nsea surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is \nsimilar to the previous advisory and remains near the middle to \nupper end of the guidance envelope.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane as it \napproaches the Big Island of Hawaii by early Saturday. A Hurricane \nWarning remains in effect for the Big Island and a Tropical Storm \nWatch is in effect for Maui County. Winds are expected to be the \nstrongest in areas of higher terrain.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to \nimpact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward across the \nremainder of the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may \nproduce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas \nof steep terrain.\n \n3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are \nexpected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along exposed \nwindward and southern shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf \nmay cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.\n \n4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of \nLala, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on \nFriday.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/0900Z 16.7N 148.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 16.9N 150.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  15/0600Z 17.6N 152.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  15/1800Z 18.3N 154.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  16/0600Z 19.2N 156.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  16/1800Z 20.1N 159.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  17/0600Z 20.7N 162.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  18/0600Z 21.4N 166.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  19/0600Z 22.5N 170.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}