{"msg": "940\nAXNT20 KNHC 140356\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0345 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCaribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will tighten \nbetween subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic \nalong 27N and the Colombian low on Friday. This will increase \nwinds in the south central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale \nforce off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela on Friday night. \nVery rough seas to 13 ft will build near and downwind of these \ngales in the southwest Caribbean Fri night into early Sat. \nPlease see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.\nCentral Tropical Atlantic (AL92):\nShowers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located\nabout 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have continued to\nbecome less organized. This system is moving into a region of\nincreasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the possibility of\ndevelopment appears to be decreasing. Regardless of development,\ninterests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the\nprogress of this system since gusty winds and areas of heavy rain\nare possible across these islands Friday night and Saturday.\nThere is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the \nnext 48 hours.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 31W, from 02N to 20N, moving \nwest at around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's\nenvironment. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally\nconducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression \ncould form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves \nwestward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central \ntropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical development \nof this system in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance for \ndevelopment in the next 7 days.\nPlease see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical\nwave with axis near 47W. \nThe axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W, moving \nwestward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong \nconvection is noted over northern Venezuela and Colombia as well\nas adjacent waters S of 12N. from 15N to 20N between 68W and 72W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends \nsouthwestward to 09N55W. Aside from convection noted in the \ntropical waves and SPECIAL FEATURES section above, scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 13N between\n33W-38W and W of 49W.  \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by\na 1018 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas\nprevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center. \nGentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, the ridge will change little through Sat before\nweakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to\nmoderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh \nwinds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into \nthe Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface trough \nmigrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. \nSlight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning \nin effect for the south-central basin effective Fri night.\nThe pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and \nthe Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the \ncentral Caribbean waters. Moderate seas prevail over these waters.\nFresh to strong trade winds and moderate seas are over the \neastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to \nmoderate seas, prevail over the remaining waters.\nFor the forecast, the tropical wave combined with the Bermuda \nHigh north of the region will enhance the trades over the central \nCaribbean through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale-force just \nnorth of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night into Sat \nmorning. Additionally, another strong tropical wave, Invest AL92,\nshould start impacting the Leeward Islands beginning tomorrow \nevening. Strong to near gale-force winds along with areas of heavy\nrain are expected Fri night and Sat. These weather conditions \nwill shift westward toward the central Caribbean and the Greater \nAntilles, including the Windward Passage from Sat night through \nMon. Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward \nthe W Caribbean. Note that if Invest AL92 forms into a tropical \ncyclone, the winds and waves expected may be higher than indicated\nhere.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92\nlocated over the central tropical Atlantic.\nA surface trough extends over the SW N Atlantic from 30N63W to \nthe central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure \ndominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, \nanchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 27N55W. Light to gentle \nwinds, and slight seas are in the vicinity of the high center, \nmainly N of 24N between 30W and 60W. Fresh to strong winds, and \nrough seas, generated by Invest AL92 are from 12N to 17N between \n41W and 50W. Fresh to strong winds are also found near the Canary \nIslands SE toward the coast of Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to \nmoderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge combined with \ntwo tropical waves passing through the Caribbean Sea will cause \nfresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night. \nElsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the \nnext few days. A weak cold front will slowly push across our \nnorthern border east of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift to northeast\nbut with little change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of \n28N.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201305591981015047", "issued": "2026-08-14T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201305591981015047"}