{"id": "1201292813944291335", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-14T03:00:00Z", "msg": "389\nWTPA42 PHFO 140251\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number   7\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Thu Aug 13 2026\n \nLala continues to steadily intensify. While the associated central \nconvection has changed little over the past several hours, aircraft \ndata show that the peak 700 mb flight-level winds have increased to \n61 kt, and the pressure has dropped to 997 mb, although with a \nsurface dropsonde wind of 49 kt. Based on these data, the initial \nintensity is raised to 50 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt. \nThe overall track forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged. A \nstrong mid-level ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands should continue \nto steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next several \ndays. The cyclone's forward motion is forecast to slow somewhat as \nit approaches and begins to interact with the terrain of the Big \nIsland on Saturday. Some short-term deviations in the track are \nalso possible during this time due to these terrain interactions. \nLala should then resume a faster west-northwestward motion as it \npasses south of the smaller islands through the remainder of the \nweekend, and south of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Sunday night \ninto early next week. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar \nto the previous advisory, except for a slight northward adjustment \nin the lee of the Big Island, and lies close to the multi-model \nconsensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean. \n\nEnvironmental conditions are expected to remain generally favorable \nfor strengthening during the next couple of days, with the primary \nlimiting factor being the dry mid-level air that continues to be \nentrained into the cyclone's large circulation. Steady \nstrengthening is forecast, and Lala is expected to become a \nhurricane as it approaches the Big Island on Saturday.  Interaction \nwith the terrain of the Big Island could result in short-term \nchanges in the cyclone's structure and intensity during its closest \napproach. Thereafter, an upper-level low is forecast to produce \nincreasing vertical wind shear with increasing dry air continuing to \nentrain into the circulation as Lala passes south of the smaller \nislands, which should result in some weakening through the remainder \nof the weekend. Re-strengthening is forecast early next week as the \ncyclone moves away from the Hawaiian Islands and into a more \nfavorable environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar \nto the previous advisory and remains near the middle to upper end of \nthe guidance envelope.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and become a hurricane as it \napproaches the Big Island of Hawaii by early Saturday. A Hurricane \nWarning is now in effect for the Big Island and a Tropical Storm \nWatch is in effect for Maui County. Winds are expected to be the \nstrongest in areas of higher terrain.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to\nimpact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward across the\nremainder of the island chain during the weekend. This rainfall may\nproduce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas\nof steep terrain.\n \n3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are\nexpected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along exposed \nwindward and southern shores. This prolonged period of heavy surf \nmay cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.\n \n4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of\nLala, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on\nFriday.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/0300Z 16.2N 147.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 16.8N 149.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 17.6N 151.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  15/1200Z 18.2N 153.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  16/0000Z 18.8N 155.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  16/1200Z 19.9N 158.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  17/0000Z 20.6N 161.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  18/0000Z 21.7N 165.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  19/0000Z 22.6N 170.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}