{"id": "1201289189005557767", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-14T03:00:00Z", "msg": "942\nWTPZ43 KNHC 140232\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026\n800 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026\n\nConvection associated with Hernan has fallen apart during the past \nseveral hours, with only some cirrus debris clouds near the center, \nthough there is a large area of thunderstorm well to the northeast. \n Assuming some spin down of the winds from an earlier scatterometer \npass, the initial intensity is set to 35 kt.  Gradual weakening is \nanticipated due to continued strong shear, though it could be offset \nsomewhat by the system moving across warmer waters. No significant \nchanges were made to the intensity forecast, which is near the \nconsensus.  Models suggest no deep convection will occur after 24 \nhours, so remnant low status is indicated thereafter.\n\nHernan remains headed slowly southward as a low-level ridge builds \nbetween Tropical Storms Hernan and Lala.  Hernan should turn \ngradually southwestward and westward due to the ridge between the \ntropical cyclones weakening and the large-scale eastern Pacific \nhigh providing a more westward steering current.  The latest \nguidance is faster and a bit south of the last cycle, and the \nofficial forecast is adjusted in that direction.  The global \nmodels show the cyclone opening up into a trough in about 3 days, \nclose to the time the remnants enter the Central Pacific.   \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/0300Z 16.8N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 16.2N 132.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 15.8N 133.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  15/1200Z 15.4N 134.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  16/0000Z 15.0N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  16/1200Z 15.0N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}