{"msg": "752\nAXNT20 KNHC 132220\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2200 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCaribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will tighten \nbetween subtropical high pressure across the western Atlantic \nalong 27N and the Colombian low on Friday. The tightening pressure\ngradient will increase winds in the south central Caribbean, with \nwinds pulsing to gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of \nVenezuela on Friday night. Very rough seas to 13 ft will build \nnear and downwind of these gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri \nnight into early Sat. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast\nissued by the National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.\nCentral Tropical Atlantic (AL92):\nShowers and thunderstorms have become less organized in\nassociation with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of\nthe Lesser Antilles. In addition, recent satellite-derived wind\ndata indicate that the system does not have a closed circulation.\nThis system is expected to move into a region of strong upper-\nlevel winds and dry air, and the development chances appear to be\ndecreasing. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the\nprogress of this system as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are\npossible Friday night and Saturday, regardless of development.\nThere is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the\nnext 48 hours.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 29W, from 02N to 20N, moving \nwest at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 08N to 15N between 29W and 36W. \nEnvironmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive \nfor gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late\nthis week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-\nnorthwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.\nThere is a low chance for tropical development of this system in\nthe next 48 hours, and a medium chance for development in the next\n7 days.\nPlease see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a tropical\nwave with axis near 46W. \nThe axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W, moving \nwestward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated  \nstrong convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 68W and 72W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends \nsouthwestward to 10N33W to 14N44W then to 06.5N56W. Aside from\nconvection noted in the tropical waves and SPECIAL FEATURES\nsection above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is\nnoted from 06N to 15N between 13W and 22W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by\na 1020 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas\nprevail across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high center. \nGentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, the Atlantic ridge that extends westward across\nFlorida and into the Gulf region  will change little through Sat \nbefore weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will produce mostly \ngentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin. Pulses of \nfresh winds are expected north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula \nand into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal \nsurface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across\nthe SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the \nforecast period. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning\nthat has been issued for portion of the south-central basin\neffective Fri night. \nThe pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and \nthe Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the \ncentral Caribbean waters. Moderate seas prevail over these waters.\nFresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate seas are over \nthe eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to \nmoderate seas, prevail over the remaining waters.\nFor the forecast, tradewinds will increase over the central \nCaribbean tonight through Sat. Peak winds should reach gale force \njust north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night into\nSat morning. A strong tropical wave- Invest AL92 - should start \nimpacting the Leeward Islands beginning tomorrow evening. Strong \nto near gale force along with areas of heavy rain are expected Fri\nnight and Sat. These weather conditions will shift westward \ntoward the central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles, including \nthe Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards the \ntropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92\nlocated over the central tropical Atlantic.\nA surface trough extends over the SW N Atlantic from 30N63W to \nthe central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure \ndominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, \nanchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 28N47W. Light to gentle \nwinds, and slight seas are in the vicinity of the high center, \nmainly N of 24N between 30W and 60W. Fresh to strong winds, and \nrough seas, generated by AL92 are from 12N to 17N between 41W and \n50W. Fresh to strong winds are also found near the Canary Islands \nSE toward the coast of Africa. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate \nwinds, and moderate seas, prevail. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE to E winds are\nexpected south of 22N tonight through Sun night. Elsewhere, winds\nare expected to remain light to moderate for the next few days. \nA weak cold front will slowly push across our northern border \neast of 70W Sun, causing a wind shift to northeast but with little\nchange in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201239603031375879", "issued": "2026-08-13T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201239603031375879"}