{"id": "1201222916346052615", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-13T21:00:00Z", "msg": "776\nWTPA42 PHFO 132055\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number   6\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Thu Aug 13 2026\n\nTropical Storm Lala has strengthened a little this morning.  A very \nrecent ASCAT-B pass showed peak winds of about 40 kt north of the \ncenter, and data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate \nthat the minimum pressure is around 1000 mb.  Based on a combination \nof aircraft, scatterometer, and satellite data, the initial \nintensity is nudged upward to 40 kt.  The storm's wind field is \nquite asymmetric with all of its tropical-storm-force winds \noccurring north of the center. Additional data from the Air Force \nand NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be helpful to further assess Lala's \nintensity over the next couple of days.\n \nLala has slowed down a bit and turned to the west-northwest.  A \nlarge mid-level high pressure system located to the north of the \nHawaiian Islands should keep Lala on a west-northwestward track, \ntaking the core of the system near the Big Island by early Saturday. \nLala will very likely pass south of the remainder of the main \nHawaiian Islands later in the weekend.  The spread in the guidance \nhas increased a little this cycle, with the GFS shifting south of \nthe previous run while the Google DeepMind remains unchanged on \nthe north side of the guidance envelope.  Based on a blend of the \nlatest Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids, the NHC track forecast \nis largely an update of the previous one. It is important to note, \nthat the NHC 48-h track error is about 50 to 60 miles.\n \nLala is likely to continue to strengthen while it approaches the Big \nIsland as the storm is expected to remain in generally conducive \nenvironmental conditions.  The NHC intensity forecast now shows Lala \nreaching category one hurricane status when it is near the Big \nIsland, trending toward the latest HCCA and Google DeepMind \nsolutions.  An upper-level low is expected to develop and impart \nshear, helping intrude dry air in the circulation when Lala moves to \nthe south of the smaller islands, and that could cause some \nweakening this weekend. However, re-strengthening is forecast early \nnext week when the system pulls away from the Hawaiian Islands. The \nNHC intensity forecast is unchanged.  This forecast lies near the \nhigh end of the guidance in the short term, but lies near the middle \nof the guidance envelope thereafter.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and it could be near hurricane \nstrength when it approaches the Big Island of Hawaii by early \nSaturday.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the island, and a \nHurricane Warning could be required later today.  Winds are \nexpected to be the strongest in areas of higher terrain.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to\nimpact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward across the\nremainder of the island chain during the weekend.  This rainfall may\nproduce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas\nof steep terrain.\n \n3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are\nexpected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along the southern\nshores. This prolonged period of heavy surf may cause localized\ncoastal flooding and significant beach erosion.\n \n4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of\nLala, and Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today or\nFriday.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  13/2100Z 15.4N 146.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 16.1N 147.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  14/1800Z 16.9N 150.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  15/0600Z 17.5N 152.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  15/1800Z 18.2N 154.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  16/0600Z 19.0N 157.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  16/1800Z 19.8N 160.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  17/1800Z 21.1N 165.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  18/1800Z 22.3N 169.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}