{"id": "1201221532927688711", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-13T21:00:00Z", "msg": "666\nWTPZ43 KNHC 132048\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026\n200 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026\n \nHernan continues to be affected by strong westerly wind shear today. \nAfter a brief increase in convection this morning, showers and \nthunderstorms have become displaced to the northeast and east, \nleaving the center of circulation almost completely exposed. An \nearlier scatterometer pass indicated that the storm had moved nearly \ndue south from the previous center position and that the radius of \n34 kt winds has contracted. Recent subjective and objective \nintensity estimates, however, range from 28-45 kt. Keeping all of \nthis in mind, the initial intensity is maintained at 40 kt for this \nadvisory.\n \nThe storm is moving southward at around 5 kt along the southeastern \nperiphery of a ridge building to the northwest. A gradual turn \ntoward the southwest and then west-southwest is forecast from Friday \ninto this weekend as Tropical Storm Lala strengthens to the west. \nThe latest NHC forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the \nprevious advisory during the first 24 h and sped up somewhat beyond \n24 h through the remainder of the forecast period. Considerable \nspread persists among the track guidance, so confidence in the \ntrack forecast remains below average.\n \nAlthough Hernan remains over warm 27-28 C waters and within a fairly \nmoist mid-level environment, strong westerly  shear is expected to \nsupport gradual weakening tonight. By early Friday, increasingly dry \nmid-level air and decreasing upper-level divergence should further \ninhibit the storm's organization. The ECMWF and GFS simulated \nsatellite imagery suggest that Hernan may struggle to maintain \norganized convection on Friday, and the latest forecast calls for \nthe system to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h. The post-tropical \nlow is expected to gradually spin down, open into a trough, and \ndissipate in a few days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  13/2100Z 17.3N 131.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 16.8N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  14/1800Z 16.2N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  15/0600Z 15.9N 133.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  15/1800Z 15.4N 135.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  16/0600Z 15.0N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}