{"msg": "579\nAXNT20 KNHC 131759\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Thu Aug 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCaribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between subtropical\nhigh pressure across the western Atlantic along 27N and lower \npressure over northern South America will tighten late this week, \nbehind a passing tropical wave, increasing trade winds across the\neastern and central Caribbean, and forcing gales to develop Fri \nevening in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Gales will\nprevail Fri night then diminish below gale-force Sat morning. \nVery rough seas to 15 ft will build near and downwind of these \ngales in the southwest Caribbean Fri night into early Sat. Please \nsee the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.\nInvest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms have become less organized\nin association with a tropical wave located along 45W. In \naddition, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the \nsystem does not have a closed circulation, but did show strong \nwinds north of the low to 20N, between 37W and 50W, with rough \nseas to 10 ft. This system is expected to move into a region of \nstrong upper-level winds and dry air, and the development chances \nappear to be decreasing. This system currently has a medium chance\nof tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Interests in \nthe Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as \ngusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible Friday night and \nSaturday, regardless of development.\n\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 28W, from 06N to 20N, moving \nwest at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted \nfrom 08N to 14N between 25W and 35W. Environmental conditions are\nforecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a\ntropical depression could form late this week or this weekend \nwhile the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the \neastern and central tropical Atlantic.\nThe axis of a Caribbean tropical wave extends from NW Venezuela \nacross the western Dominican Republic, moving westward at about 15\nkt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 15N to \n25N between 67W and 73W.\nThe axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W,\nsouthward across central Cuba to Panama, moving westward at \naround 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is impacting the waters\nbetween Cuba and Jamaica, and also W of Jamaica to about 82W.\n\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and extends \nsouthwestward through a 1010 mb low pressure near 11N45W to \n06N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted \nfrom 06N to 12N and E of 21W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, \nconvection near these features is primarily associated with the \ntropical waves and special feature described above. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by\na 1018 mb high near 27N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas\nprevail across the NE Gulf. Mainly moderate E to S winds, with \nslight to moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. A diurnal surface \ntrough has moved offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and into the\ncentral Bay of Campeche, triggering scattered moderate convection\nalong the northern end of the trough axis. Behind the trough, \nfresh SE winds prevail.\nFor the forecast, a weak high pressure should remain over the N \nGulf for the next several days. A nightly surface trough will move\nwestward off of the Yucatan peninsula into the SW Gulf, causing \nfresh to locally strong NE winds. Elsewhere, winds and seas should\nbe quiescent for the next several days.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning\nthat has been issued for portion of the south-central basin\neffective Fri night. \nThe pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure along\n27N and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds \nover the south central Caribbean S of 17N. Rough seas to 8 ft prevail\nover these waters. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and \nmoderate seas to 6 ft prevail over the northeast Caribbean behind\nthe tropical wave across the eastern Dominican Republic. Gentle \nto moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the remaining \nwaters.\nFor the forecast, a strong tropical wave along 70W along with the\nBermuda High north of the region will enhance the trades over the\ncentral Caribbean tonight through Sat. Peak winds should reach \ngale force just north of Colombia and Venezuela tonight through \nSat morning. Additionally, another strong tropical wave - noted as\nInvest AL92 - should start impacting the Leeward Islands \nbeginning tomorrow evening. Winds strong to near gale force along \nwith scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected from \ntomorrow night through Sat night for the Leeward Islands. As \nInvest AL92 moves westward, the enhanced winds will shift toward \nthrough N central Caribbean and the Greater Antilles including the\nWindward Passage from Sat night through Sun night. Afterwards the\ntropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean. \nNote that if Invest AL92 forms into a tropical cyclone, the winds \nand waves expected may be higher than indicated here.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92\nlocated over the central tropical Atlantic.\nHigh pressure prevails over the waters N of 18N, anchored by a \n1024 mb high centered near 28N46W, extending westward to SE \nFlorida, and northeastward to a 1027 mb high near 35N27W. Mainly \ngentle winds prevail over the waters N of 24N and west of 30W, \nwith slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are \nnoted S of 24N and W of 30W, with moderate seas. Invest AL92 is \ncurrently passing due south of the 1024 mb high center, and is\nproducing a broad swath of fresh to strong winds S of 20N between \n37W and 50W. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE winds \nextend from the Canary Islands to 20N then become moderate to \nlocally fresh across the Cabo Verde Islands to 30W. Moderate to \nlocally rough seas prevail across this area. Upper level troughing\nsupports widely scattered moderate convection N of 25N between 60W\nand 80W. Dry and stable Saharan Air continues to dominate much of\nthe basin S of 24N to 14N, between Africa and the NE Caribbean.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, ridging along 27N with the Bermuda \nHigh combined with two tropical waves passing through the \nCaribbean will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N \nfrom tonight through Sun night. Elsewhere winds are expected to \nremain light to moderate for the next few days. Looking ahead, a \nweak cold front will slowly push across our northern border east \nof 70W Sun, causing a wind shift to northeast but with little \nchange in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201188365297975303", "issued": "2026-08-13T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201188365297975303"}