{"id": "1201149665750122503", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-13T15:00:00Z", "msg": "432\nWTPZ43 KNHC 131443\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026\n800 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026\n \nConvection has increased to the north and east of the center of \nHernan this morning. An earlier GPM microwave pass, which became \navailable after the previous advisory, suggested that the center was \nfarther southeast than previously analyzed, and the initial position \nfor this advisory was adjusted accordingly. In addition, a recent \nscatterometer pass indicated peak winds of 37-39 kt in the western \nsemicircle of the storm. The microwave imagery depicted a compact \ncenter with a well-established band wrapping around the northern and \neastern portions of the circulation. Objective and subjective \nintensity estimates range from 28-38 kt. Given the improved \nsatellite presentation and the scatterometer-derived winds, the \ninitial intensity has been set at 40 kt for this advisory. \n \nHernan is drifting slowly southwestward. A slow southwestward to \nsouthward motion is expected over the next 24-36 h as a ridge builds \nto the northwest of the storm and Tropical Storm Lala strengthens to \nthe southwest. The latest NHC track forecast has been nudged \nslightly to the left of the previous forecast through 36 h to \naccount for the adjusted initial position and lies between the \nprevious forecast and HCCA. Beyond 36 h, Hernan is expected to turn \ntoward the west-southwest and accelerate. Considerable spread \nremains among the track guidance, so confidence in the track \nforecast is a little below average.\n\nThe storm is currently over warm SSTs of around 27-28 C and within a \nmoist mid-level airmass. However, it is being impacted by strong \nwesterly wind shear. Little change in intensity is expected over the \nnext 12 h or so, followed by gradual weakening as Hernan encounters \nincreasingly dry mid-level air and decreasing upper-level \ndivergence. The ECMWF and GFS simulated satellite imagery suggest \nthat Hernan may struggle to maintain organized convection by Friday, \nand the latest forecast calls for the system to degenerate to a \nremnant low by 36 h. The post-tropical low is expected to gradually \nspin down, open into a trough, and dissipate in a few days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  13/1500Z 18.0N 131.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  14/0000Z 17.6N 132.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  14/1200Z 17.1N 132.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  15/0000Z 16.5N 132.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  15/1200Z 15.9N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  16/0000Z 15.5N 135.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}