{"id": "1201148873000321031", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-13T15:00:00Z", "msg": "313\nWTPA42 PHFO 131439\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number   5\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Thu Aug 13 2026\n\nOver the past several hours, deep convection has been increasing \nnear the center and in bands on the north side of the system.  In \naddition, the circulation appears less elongated and more \nconsolidated.  Based on the improvement in its appearance, the \nsystem now meets the criteria of a tropical storm.  The initial \nintensity of Lala is estimated to be 35 kt, which is near the middle \nof the latest satellite intensity estimates.  An Air Force \nreconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Lala later this \nmorning, and that data will be quite helpful in better assessing the \nstorm's intensity and structure.\n \nLala is moving generally westward at about 9 kt.  The track forecast\nphilosophy appears fairly straightforward.  A large mid-level high\npressure system located to the north of the Hawaiian Islands should\nkeep Lala on a westward to west-northwestward track, taking the core\nof the system near or just south of the Big Island by early\nSaturday.  Lala will very likely pass south of the smaller islands\nduring the remainder of the weekend.  The guidance has trended a bit\nto the south this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged\nin that direction.  It is important to note, that the NHC 48-h track\nerror is about 50 to 60 miles.\n \nThe storm is likely to strengthen during the next couple of days as\nthe environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable\nfor the system.  The NHC intensity forecast brings Lala up to 60 kt\naround the time it nears the Big Island, but there is some very\nskillful guidance, including the Google DeepMind and HCCA that show\nit becoming a category 1 hurricane during that time.  An upper-level\nlow is expected to develop and impart shear, helping intrude dry air\nin the circulation when Lala moves to the south of the smaller\nislands, and that could cause some weakening this weekend.\nHowever, re-strengthening is forecast early next week when the\nsystem pulls away from the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC intensity\nforecast lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term,\nbut lies near the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Lala is forecast to strengthen and it could be near hurricane \nstrength when it approaches the Big Island by early Saturday.  A \nHurricane Watch has been issued for the island. Winds are expected \nto be the strongest downslope of higher terrain, over headlands, and \nthrough passes.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala will begin to \nimpact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward across the island \nchain during the weekend.  This rainfall may produce \nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of \nsteep terrain.\n\n3. Large and dangerous waves, especially on the Big Island, are \nexpected this weekend, with the greatest impacts along the southern \nshores. This prolonged period of heavy surf may cause localized \ncoastal flooding and significant beach erosion.\n \n4. Interests in the smaller islands should monitor the progress of \nLala, and Tropical Storm Watches could be required later today or \nFriday.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  13/1500Z 15.2N 145.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  14/0000Z 15.9N 146.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  14/1200Z 16.6N 149.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  15/0000Z 17.4N 151.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  15/1200Z 18.0N 154.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  16/0000Z 18.7N 156.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  16/1200Z 19.6N 159.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  17/1200Z 21.0N 164.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  18/1200Z 22.6N 169.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}