{"msg": "441\nAXNT20 KNHC 131001\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Thu Aug 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0920 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCaribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between subtropical\nhigh pressure across the western Atlantic along 27N and lower \npressure over northern South America will tighten late this week, \nbehind a passing tropical wave, increasing trade winds across the\neastern and central Caribbean, and forcing gales to develop Fri \nevening in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Gales will\nprevail Fri night then diminish below gale-force Sat morning. \nVery rough seas to 15 ft will build near and downwind of these \ngales in the southwest Caribbean Fri night into early Sat. Please \nsee the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.\nInvest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of \norganization in association with a tropical wave located in the\nCentral Tropical Atlantic along 43W, midway between the Lesser \nAntilles and the west coast of Africa. 1011 mb low pressure is\nanalyzed there near 11N42W. Overnight satellite scatterometer data\nshowed strong winds north of the low to 20N, between 37W and 48W,\nwith rough seas to 10 ft. Environmental conditions are forecast \nto be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression\nwill likely form during the next day or so while the system moves\nwestward or west- northwestward across the central tropical \nAtlantic. However, by Friday, upper-level winds are likely to \nbecome too strong for development as the system approaches the \nLesser Antilles. There is high chance for tropical formation in \nthe next 48 hours. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 27W-28W, from 06N to 19N,  \nmoving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong\nconvection is noted from 08N to 13N between 26W and 33W. Overnight\nsatellite scatterometer data showed strong SW to W winds noted on\nthe S side of the system. Environmental conditions are forecast \nto be generally conducive for some development, and a tropical \ndepression could form late this week or this weekend while the \nwave moves westward or west- northwestward across the eastern and \ncentral tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical \ncyclone development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance for \ndevelopment in the next 7 days.\nThe axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W-68W, extending\nfrom Venezuela across the eastern Dominican Republic, moving \nwestward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection \nis noted from 14N to 25N between 67W and 72W.\nThe axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W,\nsouthward across eastern Cuba to northwestern Colombia, moving \nwestward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \nimpacting the Windward Passage, between Cuba and Jamaica, and \nnearby waters. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends \nsouthwestward to 10.5N29W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N42W to \n07N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted\nfrom 05.5N to 11N E of 19W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, convection\nnear these features is primarily associated with the tropical \nwave and special feature described above. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure prevails over the northern Gulf waters, anchored by\na 1018 mb high near 27N85W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas\nprevail across the NE Gulf. Mainly moderate E to S winds, with \nslight to moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. A diurnal surface \ntrough has moved offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and into the\ncentral Bay of Campeche overnight, triggering scattered moderate \nconvection along it. Behind the trough, fresh SE winds prevail.\nFor the forecast, high pressure across the NE Gulf will change \nlittle through Sat before weakening Sun and Mon. This pattern will\nproduce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin,\nwith pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the \nYucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and \nnight, as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan \nPeninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are\nexpected through the forecast period. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning\nthat has been issued for portion of the south-central basin\neffective Fri night. \nThe pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure along\n27N and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds \nover the south central Caribbean S of 17N. Rough seas to 8 ft prevail\nover these waters. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and \nmoderate seas to 6 ft prevail over the northeast Caribbean behind\nthe tropical wave across the eastern Dominican Republic. Gentle \nto moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the remaining \nwaters.\nFor the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will gradually strengthen \nacross the Caribbean basin, behind a tropical wave currently \nmoving across the eastern Caribbean, leading to a significant \nexpansion in coverage of strong trade winds over the eastern and \ncentral portions of the basin, today through Sat. Winds are \nexpected to increase to gale-force offshore of Colombia and in the\nGulf of Venezuela Fri night. Looking ahead, an area of showers \nand thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave located \nover the central Atlantic near 42W is showing some signs of \norganization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be \nconducive for development during the next day or so, and a \ntropical depression will likely form while the system moves \nwestward to west-northwestward across the central tropical \nAtlantic. However, by Friday, upper-level winds are likely to \nbecome too strong for development as the system approaches the \nLesser Antilles. This system is forecast to reach the Lesser \nAntilles Sat morning, and reach 70W Sun morning.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92\nlocated over the central tropical Atlantic.\nHigh pressure prevails over the waters N of 18N, anchored by a \n1022 mb high centered near 28N50W, extending westward to SE \nFlorida, and northeastward to a 1024 mb high near 35N26W. Mainly \ngentle winds prevail over the waters N of 24N and west of 23W, \nwith slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are \nnoted S of 23N and W of 48W, with moderate seas. Invest AL92 is\ncurrently passing due south of the 1022 mb high center, and\nproducing a broad swath of fresh to strong winds S of 20N between\n37W and 48W. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE winds \nextend from the Canary Islands to 20N then become moderate to\nlocally fresh across the Cabo Verde Islands to 30W. Moderate to\nlocally rough seas prevail across this area. Dry and stable\nSaharan Air continues to dominate much of the basin S of 24N to\n14N, between Africa and the NE Caribbean.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will \nsink slightly southward Fri and Fri night, before weakening over \nthe weekend into early next week. S of 23N, trade winds will \nfreshen from E to W today through Sat, behind a tropical wave \ncurrently across the eastern Caribbean. Fresh trades N of \nHispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage will pulse \nto strong speeds each night. Looking ahead, Invest AL92 is \nforecast to reach the Lesser Antilles Sat morning, and reach 70W \nSun morning.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201094350947450887", "issued": "2026-08-13T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201094350947450887"}