{"id": "1201078677395210247", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-13T09:00:00Z", "msg": "109\nWTPA42 PHFO 130841\nTCDCP2\n \nPotential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number   4\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Wed Aug 12 2026\n\nRecent ASCAT data suggest that the circulation of the disturbance \nhas become more circular during the past several hours. However, \nthe strongest winds are still located almost 200 n mi to the \nnortheast of the center, and the system continues to lack enough \norganized convection to be called a tropical cyclone.  The ASCAT \ndata showed 35 kt winds, and that remains the initial intensity.\n\nThe initial motion is a rather uncertain 275/9 kt. A large high \npressure system north of the Hawaiian Islands should steer the \nsystem generally west-northwestward for the next several days. \nWhile the guidance is in general agreement with this scenario, the \ntrack guidance has shifted a bit to the south of the previous \nguidance suite since the last advisory, and the previous forecast, \nthe HCCA corrected consensus model, and the Google DeepMind \nensemble mean are all near the north edge of the guidance envelope. \nSince reformations of the center could occur as the disturbance \norganizes, the new forecast track will be nudged only a little south \nof the previous track at this time.  The track forecast, including \nhow close the center will come to Hawaii, will remain low \nconfidence until a better-defined center forms.\n \nFor the next two days or so, the environment looks generally \nfavorable for intensification. However, the ongoing sprawling \nstructure suggests this strengthening will be gradual.  As the \nsystem passes near Hawaii, the environment should become somewhat \nless favorable due to some southwesterly shear, interaction with \nthe island of Hawaii, and dry air entrainment. These conditions are \nlikely to slow or stop intensification. The new intensity forecast \nis has some minor tweaks for the previous forecast, and it lies in \nthe center of the intensity guidance envelope. As noted in the \nprevious advisory, if the system tracks farther south of Hawaii \nthan forecast, it would stay in more favorable conditions and \nlikely get stronger than forecast.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm by \nThursday night and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward \nnear or over the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend.  \nAlthough it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude \nof impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast\nupdates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with the Potential Tropical Cyclone \nwill begin to impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward \nacross the island chain during the weekend.  This rainfall may \nproduce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas \nof steep terrain.\n \n3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the\nHawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the\nsystem.  Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for\nportions of the Hawaiian Islands early Thursday.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  13/0900Z 14.8N 144.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  13/1800Z 15.5N 145.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 24H  14/0600Z 16.5N 147.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 36H  14/1800Z 17.3N 150.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  15/0600Z 18.0N 153.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  15/1800Z 18.7N 155.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  16/0600Z 19.6N 158.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  17/0600Z 21.2N 163.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  18/0600Z 22.8N 169.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n \n"}