{"id": "1201078283842256903", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-13T09:00:00Z", "msg": "074\nWTPZ43 KNHC 130839\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026\n200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026\n \nA recent ASCAT pass has shown that the winds have increased on\nthe western side of the cyclone to around 35 kts. While the most\nrecent TAFB Dvorak fix has a Final T 2.0 with a max winds of 30\nkt. DPRINT has a wind maximum around 39 kt while the ADT and AiDT\nare close to 32 and 33 kt respectively. Based on the observations \nfrom the ASCAT, the initial NHC intensity has been set to 35 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be west, or 270 degrees at 3 kt. \nAs a trough near the west coast of the U.S. pulls away and some \nweak ridging builds back in to the north, the cyclone should \ngradually turn toward the southwest as it feels a tug from lower \npressures to the southwest of the system. The current NHC forecast \ntrack is adjusted slightly to the right of the previous track, but \ngenerally still in the middle of the spread in the models and close \nto HCCA. However, given that the track guidance still has a large \nspread, the track confidence is still a bit below average.  \n \nThe cyclone is experiencing moderate to strong westerly wind shear,\nmainly due to the aforementioned trough to the north and outflow\nfrom Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C.  Therefore, at best only \nminor additional strengthening appears likely, and the most likely \nscenario is that the wind shear will prevent any additional \nstrengthening. Models forecast the environment to remain \nunfavorable and that the storm may well degenerate to a remnant low \nwithin 48 h. Indeed, the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery \nindicate that it could a remnant low sooner than currently \nforecast. The remnants should gradually spin down and dissipate in a \nfew days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  13/0900Z 18.1N 131.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  13/1800Z 18.0N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  14/0600Z 17.3N 132.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  14/1800Z 16.5N 132.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  15/0600Z 15.8N 133.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  15/1800Z 15.3N 135.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  16/0600Z 14.9N 136.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}