{"msg": "555\nAXNT20 KNHC 130426\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Thu Aug 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCaribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between subtropical\nhigh pressure centered toward Bermuda and lower pressure over \nnorthern South America will tighten late this week, increasing \ntrade winds and forcing gales to develop Fri evening in the Gulf \nof Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Gales will prevail Fri night \nthen diminish Sat. Very rough seas will build near and downwind of\nthese gales in the southwest Caribbean Fri night into early Sat. \nPlease see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.\nInvest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of \norganization in association with a tropical wave located in the\nCentral Tropical Atlantic midway between the Lesser Antilles and \nthe west coast of Africa, with an axis along 40W. This system \ncurrently has some strong winds and rough seas impacting waters \nfrom 09N to 15N between 38W and 42W. Environmental conditions are \nforecast to be conducive for further development, and a tropical \ndepression will likely form during the next day or two while the \nsystem moves westward or west- northwestward across the central \ntropical Atlantic. There is high chance for tropical formation in \nthe next 48 hours. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 28W, from 05N to 18N, a few\nhundred miles SW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving west at around\n15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N\nbetween 24W and 32W, and some strong SW winds are noted on the SE\nside of the system. Environmental conditions are forecast to be\ngenerally conducive for some development, and a tropical\ndepression could form late this week or this weekend while the\nwave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and \ncentral tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical \ncyclone development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance for \ndevelopment in the next 7 days.\nThe axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W,\nextending across Puerto Rico southward to Venezuela, moving\nwestward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted\nfrom 13N to 17N between 63W and 66W. \nThe axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W,\nsouthward across far eastern Cuba to northern Colombia, moving\nwestward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is impacting the Windward Passage, between Cuba and \nJamaica, and nearby waters. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near new and extends \nsouthwestward to a 1010 mb low pressure near 11N40W to 09N48W. The\nITCZ extends from 09N48W to 09N59W. Convection near these \nfeatures is primarily associated with the tropical wave and \nspecial feature described in the sections above. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1019 mb\nhigh near 28N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are in the\nvicinity of the high center. Mainly moderate SE winds, with slight\nto moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. A diurnal surface trough has\nmoved NW and offshore the Yucatan Peninsula this evening,\ntriggering scattered moderate convection along it.\nFor the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extending westward across \nFlorida and into the north-central Gulf will change little \nthrough Sat before weakening Sun. This pattern will produce mostly\ngentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of\nfresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and\ninto the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal \nsurface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across\nthe SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the \nforecast period. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning\nthat has been issued for portion of the south-central basin\neffective Fri night. \nThe pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure north of the\narea and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds \nover the south central Caribbean. Rough seas prevail over these \nwaters. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas, prevail over \nthe north-central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate \nwinds and moderate seas prevail over the remaining waters.\nFor the forecast, an area of showers and thunderstorms \nassociated with a tropical wave located over the central Atlantic\nnear 40W is showing some signs of organization tonight. \nEnvironmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for \ndevelopment during the next couple of days, and a tropical \ndepression will likely form while the system moves westward to \nwest-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and \nreaches the Lesser Antilles Sat.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92\nlocated over the central tropical Atlantic.\nHigh pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a \n1021 mb high centered near 28N51W. Mainly gentle winds prevail \nover the waters N of 23N and west of 25W, with slight to moderate \nseas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted elsewhere S of 23N,\nwith moderate seas. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE \nwinds extend from the Canary Islands to 20N then become moderate \nacross the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate seas prevail across this \narea. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge extends \nalong 27N tonight and will sink slightly southward Thu, then \nchange little through Fri night, before weakening over the \nweekend. Winds will freshen from E to W, and south of 23N, tonight\nthrough Sat, behind a tropical wave currently across the eastern \nCaribbean. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the\nWindward Passage will pulse to strong speeds each night. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201028389596921863", "issued": "2026-08-13T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201028389596921863"}