{"id": "1201009851240054791", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-13T03:00:00Z", "msg": "279\nWTPA42 PHFO 130251\nTCDCP2\n \nPotential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number   3\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Wed Aug 12 2026\n \nThe disturbance remains poorly organized, with at least two\nmesovortices rotating around the larger circulation.   A recent\nOSCAT pass also shows a very elongated circulation, with gale-force\nwinds confined to the northeastern quadrant. There has been some\nsuggestion in recent imagery that the southern side of the\ncirculation is becoming more dominant, but the overall system\nis still too ill-defined to be considered a tropical cyclone.  The\ninitial wind speed remains 35 kt per earlier scatterometer data.\n \nThe overall circulation envelope appears to be moving westward at\nabout 8 kt.  A large high pressure system north of the Hawaiian\nIslands should cause a west to west-northwestward track of the\ndisturbance for the next several days.  At this point, the track\nforecast is highly dependent on where a true center forms, with the\nmost northward model formations generally gaining the most\nlatitude, and the southward model solutions usually staying just \nsouth of the Hawaiian Islands.  The overall model trend is slightly \nsouth of the previous forecast, and the new forecast is adjusted in \nthat direction.  This should not be considered a high-confidence\nprediction given the uncertainties on where a center will form.\n \nThe environment should generally be conducive for intensification\nduring the next few days with warm sea-surface temperatures,\nlow-to-moderate vertical wind shear and ample low- to mid-level\nhumidities in the system's path.  Due to the sprawling structure,\nonly a gradual strengthening is anticipated. The intensity forecast\nnear the Hawaiian Islands is challenging because of land\ninteraction and an upper-low dropping near the cyclone.  Models\ntonight generally show a more conducive trough interaction than a\nhigh-shear one, and the system is expected to be near hurricane\nstrength by the time it nears the Hawaiian Islands.  The new\nintensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, but is\nleveled off near Hawaii.  This forecast could be conservative\nbeyond 3 days, especially if the system moves south of expected.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on\nThursday and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward near or\nover the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend.  Although\nit is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of\nimpacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast\nupdates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with the system will begin to impact\nthe Big Island Friday, spreading westward into Maui Saturday, and\nLanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai on Sunday.  This rainfall may\nproduce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas\nof steep terrain.\n \n3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the\nHawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the\nsystem.  Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for\nportions of the Hawaiian Islands early Thursday.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  13/0300Z 14.8N 143.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  13/1200Z 15.2N 144.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 24H  14/0000Z 16.2N 146.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 36H  14/1200Z 17.3N 149.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  15/0000Z 18.1N 151.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  15/1200Z 18.8N 154.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  16/0000Z 19.6N 156.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  17/0000Z 21.4N 162.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  18/0000Z 23.3N 167.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n \n"}