{"id": "1201009752697798663", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-13T03:00:00Z", "msg": "275\nWTPZ43 KNHC 130251\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082026\n800 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2026\n \nScatterometer passes over the past day or so have indicated that\nInvest 99E has had a closed, well-defined circulation during that\ntime, including a recent OSCAT pass.  Deep convection has pulsed up\nand down over the past day, but has recently been persisting\nwell-enough for the past 6 hours to be classified as a tropical \ncyclone.  The latest subjective Dvorak fix from TAFB is 1.5/25 kt, \nbut wind vectors from OSCAT, as well as the ASCAT pass from \nyesterday, suggest that it likely has winds near 30 kt, and that is \nthe initial NHC intensity for this advisory.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300\ndegrees at 6 kt.  As a trough near the west coast of the U.S. pulls\naway and some weak ridging builds back in to the north, the cyclone\nshould gradually turn toward the southwest as it feels a tug from\nlower pressures toward the southwest of the system.  The NHC\nforecast lies near, but slightly south of, the latest HFIP corrected\nconsensus (HCCA) model.  The spread in the models is a little\ngreater than average, so the confidence in the track forecast is a\nbit below average.\n \nThe cyclone is experiencing moderate to strong westerly wind shear, \nmainly due to the aforementioned trough to the north and outflow \nfrom Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C.  Therefore, very little \nstrengthening is likely.  The NHC forecast calls for a peak \nintensity of 35 kt in 12-24 hours, which is near the high end of the \nintensity guidance suite.  Thereafter, although shear may decrease \nsome as that trough pulls away, mid-level humidities are expected to \ndecrease at the same time, and model guidance suggests there may not \nbe much left of the cyclone by 48 h.  The NHC forecast calls for the \nsystem to become a remnant low in 48 h, but GFS and ECMWF simulated \nsatellite imagery indicate it could become a remnant low even sooner \nthan forecast.  After that, model guidance shows the system \ngradually spinning down and dissipating in about 3 days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  13/0300Z 18.1N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  13/1200Z 18.2N 131.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  14/0000Z 17.9N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  14/1200Z 17.0N 132.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  15/0000Z 16.2N 133.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  15/1200Z 15.5N 134.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  16/0000Z 15.2N 136.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}