{"id": "1201006311547174919", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-13T03:00:00Z", "msg": "930\nWTNT43 KNHC 130233\nTCDAT3\n \nTropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032026\n300 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026\n\nCool sea-surface temperatures and north-northwesterly shear are \ntaking their toll on Cristobal.  Satellite images show that the \ncyclone has become completely devoid of deep convection.  The latest \nintensity estimates from TAFB, as well as the latest DPRINT and \nDMINT estimates, are near 30 kt, although some of the other \nobjective estimates were still a bit higher.  The initial intensity \nis brought down to 35 kt for this advisory, as a compromise of the \ndata.\n\nBased on the increasingly harsh environmental conditions that the \nstorm is entering as well as the latest model guidance, Cristobal is \nexpected to continue weakening, and it is unlikely that convection \nwill make a comeback.  Therefore, the NHC forecast now calls for \nCristobal to become a remnant low within the next 12 h.  \n\nThe current motion estimate is east-northeastward, or 075/14 kt. \nThe cyclone is expected to turn a bit more northeastward over the \nnext 12 h, and very little change has been made to the previous NHC \ntrack prediction.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  13/0300Z 37.7N  39.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  13/1200Z 38.7N  37.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}