{"msg": "453\nAXNT20 KNHC 122213\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Thu Aug 13 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2200 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCentral Tropical Atlantic (AL92): An area of showers and \nthunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about 950\nmiles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental \nconditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the\nnext couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form \nwhile the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the \ncentral tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance for tropical \nformation in the next 48 hours. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 24W, from 04N to 18N, moving \nW at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is\nnoted from 06N to 14N between 22W and 30W. Environmental \nconditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some \ndevelopment of this system during the next several days while it \nmoves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and \ncentral tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance for tropical\ncyclone development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance for\ndevelopment in the next 7 days.\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on \na tropical wave near 40W, and the potential for tropical cyclone\ndevelopment. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 63W extending southward from \n18N, moving west at around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection is noted from 13N to 18N between 60W and 64W. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 72W S of 22N, moving west at \n10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N to 20N \nbetween 72W and 76W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends \nsouthwestward to a 1010 mb low pressure near 10.5N39.5W to \n09N48W. The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to 10N60W. Aside from \nconvection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered \nmoderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 44W and 50W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1019 mb\nhigh near 28N86W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are in the\nvicinity of the high center. Gentle to locally moderate winds, and\nslight seas, prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, the weather pattern will produce mostly gentle \nto moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh \nwinds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into \nthe Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal surface \ntrough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW \nGulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast \nperiod. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure north of the\narea and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds \nover the south central Caribbean. Rough seas prevail over these\nwaters. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail over\nthe north central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and\nmoderate seas, prevail over the remaining waters.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic \nridge and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to \nstrong trades over the south-central Caribbean through tonight. \nThe ridge will begin to strengthen modestly behind a tropical wave\ncurrently moving across the eastern Caribbean, leading to a \nsignificant expansion in coverage of strong trade winds over the \ncentral and eastern portions of the basin through Sat. Winds may \nincrease to gale-force offshore of Colombia by Fri night. Looking \nahead, an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a \ntropical wave is located about 950 miles west-southwest of the \nCabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be \nconducive for development during the next couple of days, and a \ntropical depression will likely form while the system moves \nwestward to west-northwestward across the central tropical \nAtlantic.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92\nlocated over the central Atlantic.\nHigh pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a \n1021 mb high centered near 28N52W. Light to gentle winds prevail \nover the waters N of 23N and west of 25W, with slight to moderate \nseas. Fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough seas, are\nassociated with invest AL92. Moderate to fresh trade winds are \nnoted elsewhere S of 23N, with moderate seas. Offshore Africa, \nfresh to locally strong NE winds extend from the Canary Islands to\n20N then become moderate across the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate\nseas prevail across this area. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will sink \nslightly southward Thu, then change little through Fri night, \nbefore weakening over the weekend. Winds will freshen from E to W,\nand south of 23N early Thu through Sat, behind a tropical wave \nmoving across the Caribbean. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and in \nthe approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong speeds \neach night. Looking ahead, an area of showers and thunderstorms \nassociated with a tropical wave is located about 950 miles west- \nsouthwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are \nforecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of\ndays, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system\nmoves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical \nAtlantic.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1200955191953948679", "issued": "2026-08-12T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1200955191953948679"}