{"id": "1200937711658598407", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-12T21:00:00Z", "msg": "599\nWTPA42 PHFO 122044\nTCDCP2\n \nPotential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number   2\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Wed Aug 12 2026\n \n \nThe disturbance remains a broad and sprawling system.  The\nassociated deep convection is poorly organized and curved banding\nfeatures are currently lacking.  An ASCAT-B scatterometer pass\nshowed some wind vectors near 35 kt, although these winds were\nlocated well northeast, over 200 n mi, from the estimated center.\nTherefore the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory.\nNote that the circulation is not well enough defined and the deep\nconvection is not sufficiently well-organized for the system to be\nconsidered a tropical cyclone yet, despite the stronger winds.\n \nSince the system has a large overall cyclonic circulation, a\nunique center has become difficult to pin down.  There appear\nto be some swirls rotating around the overall gyre.  My best\nestimate of the initial motion is 260/8 kt.  There hasn't been much\nchange to the track forecast or reasoning behind the forecast.  A\nlarge mid-level anticyclone to the north of One-C should result in\na mostly west-northwestward track over the next several days.  The\nofficial track forecast is basically unchanged from the previous\none, and close to the dynamical consensus and Google DeepMind\nGuidance.  Given that the system is still in the formative stage,\nthe precise track is still somewhat uncertain.\n \nSea surface temperatures, vertical wind shear and low- to\nmid-level humidities should support gradual strengthening during\nthe next few days.  Based on the intensity models, the system is\nexpected to be nearing hurricane strength by the time it nears the\nHawaiian Islands.  However, an upper-level low/trough could limit\nstrengthening while the system passes near or over the Islands.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on\nThursday and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward near or\nover the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend.  Although\nit is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of\nimpacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast\nupdates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with the system will begin to impact\nthe Big Island Friday, spreading westward into Maui Saturday, and\nLanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai on Sunday.  This rainfall may\nproduce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas\nof steep terrain.\n \n3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the\nHawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the\nsystem.  Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for\nportions of the Hawaiian Islands early Thursday.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  12/2100Z 14.7N 142.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  13/0600Z 15.2N 143.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 24H  13/1800Z 15.9N 145.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 36H  14/0600Z 17.0N 147.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  14/1800Z 17.9N 149.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  15/0600Z 18.6N 152.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  15/1800Z 19.3N 154.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  16/1800Z 21.0N 160.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  17/1800Z 22.9N 165.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n \n"}