{"id": "1200935931843641351", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-12T21:00:00Z", "msg": "289\nWTNT43 KNHC 122035\nTCDAT3\n \nTropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032026\n900 PM GMT Wed Aug 12 2026\n \nThe satellite presentation of Cristobal has continued to degrade \ntoday. Approximately 15-20 kt of west-northwesterly shear is \ndisplacing the slowly diminishing convection to the south and east \nof the now completely exposed center. Objective and subjective \nintensity estimates span a wide range, from 27-47 kt. The initial \nintensity of 40 kt is maintained for this advisory, placing some \nweight on the earlier ASCAT data.\n \nCristobal is moving eastward at around 090/18 kt, steered by a ridge \nover the north-central Atlantic to the northeast of the storm and a \nsubtropical ridge to the south. The cyclone is expected to turn \nnortheastward and gradually slow down tonight into Thursday as it \nmoves along the southwestern periphery of the northern Atlantic \nridge. Cristobal will move over progressively cooler waters while \nencountering drier mid-level air and strong northerly wind shear. \nThese increasingly hostile environmental conditions should result in \nslow, steady weakening over the next day or so, with dissipation \nexpected Thursday night or Friday morning. The official NHC track \nand intensity forecasts remain near the middle of the consensus \nguidance and are closest to the HCCA solution.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  12/2100Z 37.2N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  13/0600Z 37.8N  38.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  13/1800Z 39.6N  36.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}