{"msg": "348\nAXNT20 KNHC 121757\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Wed Aug 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1740 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nInvest AL92:An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with \na tropical wave is located about 950 miles west-southwest of the \nCabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be \nconducive for development during the next couple of days, and a \ntropical depression will likely form while the system moves \nwestward to west-northwestward across the central tropical \nAtlantic. There is a high chance for tropical formation in the \nnext 48 hours. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is east of the Cape Verde Islands, and is along \n22W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted ahead of this wave from 06N to 13.5N between \n20W and 28W.\nSee the Special Features section above for information on a\ntropical wave along 38W. Low pressure near 10.3N38W associated \nwith this wave is likely to develop into a tropical depression \nover the next couple of days. Scattered moderate convection is \nnoted from 08.5N to 13.5N between 36W and 41W\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 61.5W extending southward \nfrom 18N, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection is noted from 13N to 17N between 60W and 63W. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 71.5W S of 22N, crossing \nHispaniola, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection is occurring NE of the Hispaniola coastal waters.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 88W, S of 21N, extending \nthrough the Gulf of Honduras southward into the far eastern \nPacific, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate \nisolated strong convection is noted from 16N to 21.5N and W of \n85W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends\nsouthwestward to a 1011 mb low pressure near 10.3N38W to 10N48W. \nThe ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 11N59W. Aside from the convection \nmentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate \nconvection is noted from 07N to 10N between 44W and 47.5W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nThe Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida into the Gulf \nregion, where a 1019 mb high is found near 28N84.5W. A surface \ntrough has moved westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and into \nthe central Bay of Campeche, and is supporting scattered moderate\nconvection over the western half of the Bay of Campeche south of \n19.5N. Light winds prevail across the NE Gulf near the high \ncenter, while gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas \nare elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, the aforementioned Atlantic ridge will change \nlittle through Sat before weakening Sun. This pattern will produce\nmostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with \npulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan \nPeninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as \na diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula \nwestward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected \nthrough the forecast period. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection\nimpacting the basin. \nThe pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure north of the\narea and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds \nover the central Caribbean south of 17N, with associated rough \nseas to 11 ft near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds\nare also funneling through the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate\nwinds and seas prevail over the remaining waters.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic \nridge and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to \nstrong trades over the south-central Caribbean through tonight. \nThe ridge will begin to strengthen modestly behind a tropical wave\ncurrently moving across the eastern Caribbean by night, leading \nto a significant expansion in coverage of strong trade winds over \nthe central and eastern portions of the basin through Sat. Winds \nmay increase to gale-force offshore of Colombia Fri night and Sat \nnight. Looking ahead, an area of showers and thunderstorms \nassociated with a tropical wave is located about 950 miles west-\nsouthwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are \nforecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of\ndays, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system\nmoves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical \nAtlantic.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92\nlocated over the central Atlantic.\nHigh pressure prevails over the waters N of 14N, anchored by a \n1021 mb high centered near 27N50W. Light to gentle winds prevail \nover the waters N of 23N and west of 25W, with slight to moderate \nseas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 23N, with \nmoderate seas. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE winds \nextend from the Canary Islands to 20N then become moderate across \nthe Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail across this \narea. Saharan Air continues to dominate much of the basin N of 14N\nbetween Africa and 60W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will sink \nslightly southward Thu, then change little through Fri night, \nbefore weakening over the weekend. Winds will freshen from E to W,\nand south of 23N early Thu through Sat, behind a tropical wave \nmoving across the Caribbean. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and in \nthe approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong speeds \neach night. Looking ahead, an area of showers and thunderstorms \nassociated with a tropical wave is located about 900 miles west-\nsouthwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are \nforecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of\ndays, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system\nmoves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical \nAtlantic.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1200904700960309255", "issued": "2026-08-12T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1200904700960309255"}