{"msg": "867\nAXPZ20 KNHC 121507\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Wed Aug 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nWestern East Pacific (EP99):\nA low pressure system located about midway between Hawaii and the\nwest coast of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and\nthunderstorm activity. While this disturbance has changed little\nin organization during the past few hours, any significant\nincrease in the organization of the associated showers and \nthunderstorms would result in the formation of a tropical \ndepression today. The system is forecast to move slowly westward \nor northwestward over the next couple of days and encounter less \nfavorable environmental conditions late this week. There is a \nhigh chance for tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 88/89W north of 02N, moving \nwest at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the \nITCZ/monsoon trough section below.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 120W from 02N to 18N, moving\nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the \nITCZ/monsoon trough section below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N105W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is from 03N to 11N east of 120W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nFresh to near- gale force winds, and rough seas, prevail over the\nGulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh winds are found west of\nBaja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds are found \nelsewhere. Moderate seas are elsewhere over the open waters off \nMexico, with slight to moderate seas over the Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds are expected across \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend. The pressure \ngradient between high pressure west of the area and lower \npressures over northern Mexico will support moderate to locally \nfresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California \ntonight into Thu, then again on Thu night. A moderate pressure \ngradient will promote mostly gentle to moderate winds across the \nremainder offshore waters of Mexico along with moderate seas. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong E gap winds, and moderate to locally rough seas,\npersist across and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to \nmoderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds and \noccasionally rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region. \nGentle to moderate winds will prevail between the Galapagos \nIslands and Ecuador, with large southerly swell moving into the \nregion starting Thu night. Light to gentle winds and moderate \nseas in SW swell are expected elsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nBroad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. The pressure\ngradient between this area of high pressure and EP99 and PTC\nOne-C just west of 140W is supporting an area of fresh to near-\ngale force winds and rough seas over the waters from 07N to 22N\nbetween 130W and 140W. Rough seas in southerly swell cover the\nwaters S of 05N between 106W and 130W. Gentle to moderate winds,\nand moderate seas prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, winds and seas are forecast to increase across\nthe west- central portion of the forecast region by the middle \npart of the week as a potential tropical cyclone develops, as\ndiscussed in the Special Features section above. The southerly\nswell will maintain rough seas over the discussion waters S of\n05N between 96W and 130W through the end of the week. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1200871293723115527", "issued": "2026-08-12T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1200871293723115527"}