{"id": "1200870347771609095", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-12T15:00:00Z", "msg": "788\nWTPA42 PHFO 121502\nTCDCP2\n \nPotential Tropical Cyclone One-C Discussion Number   1\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Wed Aug 12 2026\n \n \nThe disturbance well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands\nis expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or so\nand be near the Islands by late Friday.  Given the potential for\nsignificant impacts over the Hawaiian Islands, Potential Tropical\nCyclone advisories are being initiated at this time.  The system's\ncloud pattern is elongated from southwest to northeast with most of\nthe deep convection well to the southwest of the center.  The\ndisturbance currently lacks sufficiently organized convection to be\nclassified as a tropical cyclone, and the Dvorak classifications\nfrom Honolulu are T1.0/1.0.  Scatterometer data suggests that the\nintensity is near 30 kt,\n \nSatellite fixes indicate that the system is moving generally\nwestward and the initial motion estimate is 270/9 kt.  Dynamical\nmodels show a mid-level high pressure system persisting to the\nnorth of the disturbance.  This steering pattern should result in\na generally west-northwestward track for the next several days.\nThe simple and corrected model consensus and Google DeepMind track\npredictions are in reasonable agreement, and the official forecast\nfollows this guidance closely.  Given that the system is still in\nthe formative stage, the precise track is still somewhat\nuncertain.\n \nThe atmospheric and oceanic environment look conducive for gradual\nstrengthening during the next few days.  Based on the intensity\nmodels, the system is expected to be nearing hurricane strength by\nthe time it nears the Hawaiian Islands.  However, an upper-level\nlow/trough could limit strengthening while the system passes near\nor over the Islands.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later\ntoday or tonight and strengthen while it moves west-northwestward\nnear or over the Hawaiian Islands late this week and this weekend.\nAlthough it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude\nof impacts, residents should closely monitor the latest forecast\nupdates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with the system is expected to begin\nto impact the Big Island Friday, spreading westward into Maui on\nSaturday, and across Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai on Sunday.  This\nrainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,\nespecially in areas of steep terrain.\n \n3. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave impacts in the\nHawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the\nsystem.  Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches may be required for\nportions of the Hawaiian Islands tonight or early Thursday.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  12/1500Z 15.0N 141.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  13/0000Z 15.3N 142.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 24H  13/1200Z 15.9N 144.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  14/0000Z 16.9N 145.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  14/1200Z 17.9N 148.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  15/0000Z 18.6N 150.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  15/1200Z 19.1N 153.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  16/1200Z 20.6N 158.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  17/1200Z 22.3N 163.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n \n"}