{"id": "1200868167576059911", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-12T15:00:00Z", "msg": "470\nWTNT43 KNHC 121451\nTCDAT3\n \nTropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032026\n300 PM GMT Wed Aug 12 2026\n\nThe circulation associated with the area of low pressure we have \nbeen monitoring well east-northeast of Bermuda over the past several \ndays has become better defined today. A recent ASCAT pass revealed \nan area of 35-40 kt winds southeast of the slightly elongated and \nexposed center, within the region of convection. While the \nconvective organization has degraded since earlier this morning, \nscatterometer data indicate that the system has achieved tropical \nstorm status, and it likely reached that threshold earlier this \nmorning. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm \nCristobal, with the initial intensity set to 40 kt. \n\nCristobal is moving quickly eastward around 22 kt over marginally \nfavorable sea surface temperatures near 25 C. The storm is currently \npositioned between a subtropical high to the south, and a ridge \nextending over the north-central Atlantic to the northeast. A turn \ntoward the northeast, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward \nspeed, is expected later today and tonight as Cristobal moves along \nthe southwestern periphery of the northern Atlantic ridge. Slow \nweakening is forecast during this period as the storm moves over \nprogressively cooler waters and encounters increasingly dry \nmid-level air and stronger northerly wind shear. Cristobal is \nexpected to be short-lived and dissipate on Thursday. The official \nNHC track and intensity forecasts lie near the middle of the \nconsensus guidance and are closest to the HCCA solution.\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  12/1500Z 36.7N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  13/0000Z 37.4N  40.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  13/1200Z 38.5N  37.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}