{"msg": "613\nAXNT20 KNHC 121024 CCA\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Wed Aug 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0900 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nInvest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of\norganization along a tropical wave located over the central\nAtlantic along 38W-39W. An associated 1011 mb low center is \nlocated near 11N36.5W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be\nconducive for development over the next few days and a tropical \ndepression will likely form within a couple of days while the \nsystem moves W to W-NW at 10 to 15 kt across the central tropical \nAtlantic. There is a high chance for tropical formation in the \nnext 7 days. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is moving away from the African coast, and is \nalong 21W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated \nstrong convection is noted ahead of this wave from 08N to 12.5N \nbetween 20W and 24.5W.\nSee the Special Features section above for information on a\ntropical wave along 38W-39W. Low pressure near 11N36.5W \nassociated with this wave is likely to develop into a tropical \ndepression over the next couple of days. Scattered moderate \nconvection is noted from 08.5N to 13.5N between 33.5W and 38.5W\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 59W extending southward from\n18N, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection \nis noted from 11N to 18N between 56W and 61.5W. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 71W S of 22N, crossing \nHispaniola, moving west at around 20 kt. Widely scattered \nmoderate convection is occurring over Hispaniola and the adjacent\ncoastal waters.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 87W, S of 21N, extending \nthrough the Gulf of Honduras southward into the far eastern \nPacific, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate \nisolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 21N and W of 83W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14.50N17W and \nextends to 11.5N22W to 1011 mb low pres near 11N36.5W to 10.5N52W.\nAside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section,\nscattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between \n24W and 52W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nWestern Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge along 27N-28N, \nacross Florida and into the N Gulf waters, where a 1019 mb high is\nfound near 27.5N84.5W. A surface trough has moved westward \noffshore the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of \nCampeche, and has triggered scattered moderate convection over the\neastern half of the Bay of Campeche south of 21N. Light winds \nprevail across the NE Gulf near the high center, while gentle to \nmoderate E to SE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, the current ridge extends across the northern \nGulf will change little through Sat before weakening Sun. This \npattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds \nacross the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and \nwest of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each \nevening and night, as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the \nYucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate \nseas are expected through the forecast period. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection\nimpacting the basin. \nThe pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure north of the\narea along 27N-28N and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong\nwinds over the central Caribbean south of 17N, with associated \nrough seas to 11 ft near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong \nNE winds are also funneling through the Windward Passage. Mainly \nmoderate winds and seas prevail over the remaining waters.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient induced by the Atlantic\nridge to the north will continue to support fresh to strong \ntrades over the central portion of the basin through Wed night. \nThe ridge will begin to strengthen modestly behind a tropical wave\nentering the eastern Caribbean Wed night, leading to a \nsignificant expansion in coverage of strong trade winds over the \ncentral and eastern portions of the basin through Sat. Winds may \nincrease to gale-force offshore of Colombia Fri night and Sat \nnight.\nLooking ahead, showers and thunderstorms associated with a \ntropical wave over the central Atlantic are showing signs of \nimproved organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to \nbecome more conducive for development during the next couple of \ndays, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter\nhalf of this week while the system moves westward to west- \nnorthwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and reaches \nthe Lesser Antilles over the weekend. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92\nlocated over the central Atlantic.\nHigh pressure prevails over the waters N of 18N, anchored by a \n1021 mb high centered near 27.5N50W, and extending from 25W to\nFlorida. Mainly gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 23N and\nwest of 25W, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh \ntrade winds are noted S of 24N, with moderate seas. Overnight\nsatellite scatterometer winds showed broad cyclonic winds between\n30W and 40W about Invest AL92, with pockets of winds 20-25 kt.\nSeas are 5 to 8 ft in this area. Offshore Africa, fresh to \nlocally strong NE winds extend from the Canary Islands to 19N then\nbecome moderate across the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 5 to 8 ft\nprevail across this area. Saharan Air continues to dominate much\nof the basin N of 14N between Africa and 60W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure ridge will\nsink slightly southward Thu, then change little through Fri \nnight, before weakening over the weekend. Winds will freshen from \nE to W, and south of 23N early Thu through Sat, behind a tropical \nwave moving across the Caribbean. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and\nin the approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong \nspeeds each night. Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms \nassociated with a tropical wave over the central Atlantic are \nshowing signs of improved organization tonight. Environmental \nconditions are forecast to become more conducive for development \nduring the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will \nlikely form during the latter half of this week while the system \nmoves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical \nAtlantic, and reaches the Lesser Antilles over the weekend. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1200815759629713415", "issued": "2026-08-12T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1200815759629713415"}