{"msg": "956\nAXNT20 KNHC 120414\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Wed Aug 12 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nInvest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of\norganization along a tropical wave located along 38W, around 700\nnm SW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are\nforecast to be conducive for development over the next few days\nand a tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days\nwill the system moves W to WNW at 10 to 15 kt across the central\ntropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance for tropical formation\nin the next 48 hours and a high chance of development over the\nnext 7 days. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is emerging off the African coast along 18W,\nmoving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted \nahead of this wave from 10N to 13N between 18W and 23W. \nSee the Special Features section above for information on a\ntropical wave, Invest AL92, that is likely to develop into a\ntropical depression.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 57W extending southward from\n18N, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is\nnoted from 10N to 14N between 56W and 60W. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 69W S of 22N, crossing\nportions of Hispaniola, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered\nmoderate convection is confined to waters within about 90 nm of \nthe coast of Hispaniola. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 89W, S of 21N, extending\nthrough the Gulf of Honduras southward into the far eastern\nPacific, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated\nstrong convection is noted S of 20N and W of 83W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W and continues \nsouthwestward to 1012 mb low pres near 11N32.5W to 11N52W. Aside \nfrom the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, \nscattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 08N to 13N and east of 21W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1020 \nmb high centered near 28N84W. A surface trough has moved westward\noffshore the Yucatan Peninsula and is inducing scattered moderate\nconvection in the central Bay of Campeche. Light winds and slight\nseas encompass the NE basin closest to the high, with gentle to\nmoderate SE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends westward \nacross the northern Gulf, and will change little through Sat \nbefore weakening Sun. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to \nmoderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh \nwinds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into \nthe Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal surface \ntrough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW \nGulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast \nperiod. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection\nimpacting the basin. \nThe pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and\nthe Colombian low is supporting strong winds over the central \nCaribbean, with associated rough seas. Fresh NE winds are also\nfunnelling through the Windward Passage. Mainly moderate winds and\nseas prevail over the remaining waters.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western \nAtlantic ridge along 27N-28N and lower pressure in northern South \nAmerica will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the \ncentral portion of the basin through Wed night. The ridge will \nshift southward to near 26N by Thu and combine with a passing \ntropical wave, and allow strong trades to significantly expand in \ncoverage over the central and eastern portions of the basin into \nearly Sat. Winds will pulse up to strong speeds during the \nevenings and at night in the the Windward Passage through the \nforecast period. Looking ahead, sowers and thunderstorms \nassociated with a tropical wave over the central Atlantic are \nshowing signs of improved organization tonight. Environmental \nconditions are forecast to become more conducive for development \nduring the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will \nlikely form during the latter half of this week while the system \nmoves westward to west- northwestward across the central tropical \nAtlantic, and approaches the Lesser Antilles over the weekend.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Invest AL91\nlocated well SW of the Cabo Verde Islands.\nHigh pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a \n1021 mb high centered near 27N50W. Mainly gentle winds prevail \nover the waters N of 23N and west of 25W, with slight to moderate\nseas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 23N, with \nmoderate seas. Offshore Africa, NE of the Cabo Verde Islands,\nincluding the Canary Islands, fresh to locally strong NE winds\nwith moderate to locally rough seas dominate. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central \nAtlantic along 50W extends westward along 27N-28N to Florida, and \nwill gradually shift southward to near 26N by Thu, then change \nlittle through Fri night, before weakening over the weekend. Winds\nwill freshen S of 23N early Thu through Sat, behind a tropical \nwave moving across the region. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and in\nthe approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong speeds \neach night. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical \nwave over the central Atlantic are showing signs of improved \norganization tonight. Environmental conditions are forecast to \nbecome more conducive for development during the next couple of \ndays, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter\nhalf of this week while the system moves westward to west- \nnorthwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and approaches\nthe Lesser Antilles over the weekend. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1200743060347518983", "issued": "2026-08-12T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1200743060347518983"}