{"msg": "949\nAXPZ20 KNHC 112035\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Tue Aug 11 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2000 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nWestern East Pacific (EP99): Recent satellite-derived wind data \nindicates that a well-defined low pressure system has formed in \nassociation with an area of showers and thunderstorms located well \nto the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California \nPeninsula.   Any significant increase in the organization of the \nshowers and thunderstorms would result in the formation of a \ntropical depression later today or on Wednesday.  The system is \nforecast to move northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the next few days \nand encounter cooler waters late this week. There is a high chance \nfor tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 85W north of 06N through \nCentral America into the western Caribbean, moving west at 10 to\n15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough\nsection below.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 116W from 02N to 18N, moving\nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the \nITCZ/monsoon trough section below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09.5N84W to 06N102W to low pres\nnear 15N137.5W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate and \nisolated strong convection is from 03N to 09N between 87W and \n109W, from 04N to 17N between 112W and 120W, from 12N to 19N\nbetween 126W and 134W, and from 05N to 17N between 134W and \n140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nFresh to near- gale force winds, and rough seas, prevail over the\nGulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are found\nelsewhere. Moderate seas are elsewhere over the open waters off\nMexico, with slight to moderate seas over the Gulf of California. \nFor the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are\nexpected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of\nthe week. Winds will then briefly diminish through the end of the\nweek before strengthening again this weekend. The pressure \ngradient between high pressure W of the area and lower pressures \nover northern Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh \nsoutherly winds across the northern Gulf of California Thu. A \nmoderate pressure gradient will promote mostly gentle to moderate\nwinds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico along with \nmoderate seas. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong E gap winds, and moderate to locally rough seas,\npersist across and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to \nmoderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds and \noccasionally rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region. \nGentle to moderate winds will prevail between the Galapagos \nIslands and Ecuador. Southerly swell will bring rough seas to \nthese waters Sun. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW \nswell are expected elsewhere. The Telica volcano in Nicaragua, \nlocated near 12.6N 86.8W, is producing a plume of volcanic ash \nthat reaches offshore to near 12N88W. Mariners should exercise \ncaution over these waters. In the event mariners encounter \nvolcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to \nthe National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4425. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nBroad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. The pressure\ngradient between this area of high pressure and low pressure\nwithin the monsoon trough is supporting a large swath of fresh to\nstrong winds N of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of \n125W. Fresh to strong winds are also noted south of the monsoon \ntrough and west of 135W. Rough seas cover these waters. \nConvergence with the broad area of fresh to strong winds is \ngenerating a large area of disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas \nprevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, winds and seas are forecast to increase across\nthe west- central portion of the forecast region by the middle \npart of the week as a potential tropical cyclone develops, as\ndiscussed in the SPECIAL FEATURES section above.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1200652817208705031", "issued": "2026-08-11T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1200652817208705031"}