{"id": "1197820914080546823", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-01T21:00:00Z", "msg": "482\nWTPZ42 KNHC 012032\nTCDEP2\n \nTropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026\n1100 AM HST Sat Aug 01 2026\n\nThe organization of Genevieve hasn\u2019t changed much during the past 6 \nh.  GOES-18 daytime visible imagery indicates that the low-level \ncenter is exposed to the west of the main convective area.  The \nlatest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB is \n2.5/35 kt, and recent objective satellite intensity estimates range \nfrom about 35-40 kt.  The initial intensity will remain 40 kt for \nthis advisory.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 12 kt, which is \nunchanged from 6 h ago.  This general motion will continue through \nthe end of the weekend as a low- to mid-level ridge remains north of \nthe cyclone.  By Monday, a gradual turn to the northwest and \nnorth-northwest is expected as the ridge weakens north of the \ncyclone due to a deep-layer low/trough that will be located to the \nnorth-northwest of Genevieve.  Very little change was made to the \nprevious NHC track forecast, which lies close to the latest Google \nDeepMind Ensemble Mean and HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA).  The \ntrack guidance remains tightly clustered, so there is high \nconfidence in the track forecast.\n\nGenevieve is starting to enter cooler sea-surface temperatures \n(SSTs) now, with SSTs between 24-25C.  The cyclone will reach SSTs \nlower than 24C in about 12h.  Genevieve is currently moving within \nan environment of weak vertical wind shear dry, stable air.  \nSouthwesterly vertical wind shear will then increase to moderate \nlevels (15-20 kt) by 24 h while the environment remains dry and \nstable. These conditions will lead to continued gradual weakening, \nand Genevieve is likely to lose its convection and become post \ntropical by 36 h.  Thereafter, the remnant low should gradually spin \ndown with dissipation occurring by 96 h, as depicted by the global \nmodels.  The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the \nprevious advisory and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/2100Z 23.3N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 23.9N 137.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  02/1800Z 24.8N 139.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  03/0600Z 25.8N 141.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  03/1800Z 26.7N 143.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  04/0600Z 27.8N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  04/1800Z 28.9N 145.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}