{"id": "1196830799547891714", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-07-29T09:00:00Z", "msg": "227\nWTPA41 PHFO 290836\nTCDCP1\n \nTropical Depression Fausto Discussion Number  42\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2026\n\nFausto has failed to produce significant convection for the past 12 \nto 15 hours, although a small area of pulsing convection has \npersisted in the northeast quadrant over the past several hours. The \ncenter of Fausto passed a very short distance south of NOAA buoy \n51000 a few hours ago.  The buoy reported a peak 1-min wind of 27 kt \nand a minimum pressure of 1009 mb.  Earlier ASCAT and recon data \nfrom the 20Z to 00Z time-frame supported winds in the 35 to 37 kt \nrange, and showed that these winds were only occurring in the NE \nquadrant between 100-140 n mi from the center.  The latest \nsubjective Dvorak numbers are 1.5/25 kt from JTWC and 2.5/35 kt from \nPHFO.  D-MINT, D-PRINT, and AiDT intensity estimates have dropped to \nthe 31-32 kt range.  Given that convection has yet to redevelop \nsince the time of the aforementioned recon and ASCAT data, it is \nestimated that winds have likely dropped below tropical-storm-force \nby now. Fausto is being downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression at \nthis time.\n \nFausto has been moving west-northwestward with an initial motion\nestimate of 290/10 kt.  This general motion is expected to continue\nfor the next couple of days, as the shallow circulation moves with\nthe low-level trade wind flow to the south of the subtropical ridge.\nThe NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one,\nand lies near the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) and simple\nconsensus (TVCN).\n \nFausto has reached a wall of 40-kt westerly vertical wind shear as \nit traverses through mid-level relative humidity values hovering \nnear 30 percent.  In these conditions, it will be quite difficult \nfor Fausto to redevelop enough convection to stay alive as a \ntropical cyclone.  Therefore, the NHC forecast now shows Fausto \nbecoming a post-tropical cyclone within the next 12 h.  Global \nmodels suggest that the remnant low of Fausto will then open up into \na trough in about 36 h, and the NHC forecast shows dissipation just \nafter that time.  It is possible that Fausto could dissipate sooner \nthan forecast.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it passes north of\nthe Hawaiian Islands through Wednesday night. Although the forecast\nindicates that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain\nnorth of the islands, interests across the Hawaiian Islands should\ncontinue to monitor the progress of Fausto.\n \n2. Surf generated by Fausto is building westward across the Hawaiian\nIslands along exposed east-facing shores and will remain dangerous\non Wednesday as Fausto passes north of the islands.  Large surf and\nstrong currents will lead to dangerous conditions along exposed\nshores.  Please consult products from your local weather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/0900Z 23.3N 154.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 23.7N 156.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  30/0600Z 24.2N 158.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  30/1800Z 24.9N 161.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}