{"id": "1196760016988143618", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-07-29T03:00:00Z", "msg": "263\nWTPA41 PHFO 290236\nTCDCP1\n \nTropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number  41\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2026\n\nMost of the deep convection associated with Fausto has been sheared \nwell to the northeast of the low-level center.  Reports from an Air \nForce Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the storm's maximum \nsustained winds have decreased to near 35 kt.  The aircraft \nobservations and earlier ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometer data \nshow that tropical-storm-force winds are now confined to the \nnortheastern quadrant of the circulation.  The center of the \ncyclone will likely pass very near NOAA data buoy 51000 within the \nnext few hours, and should provide additional information on the \ncentral pressure which is estimated to have risen to 1006 mb.\n\nCenter fixes from aircraft and satellite indicate that Fausto \ncontinues on a mainly west-northward track with an initial motion \nestimate of 285/10 kt.  The steering winds associated with a weak \nlow-level ridge should result in a continued general \nwest-northwestward motion for the next couple of days.  The official \ntrack forecast is on the southern side of the guidance envelope and \nsimilar to the previous NHC prediction.\n\nAlthough Fausto is expected to remain over marginally warm ocean \nwaters, the atmospheric environment is expected to be highly \nunfavorable, and become even less conducive for regeneration during \nthe period.  Strong upper-level westerlies should result in a \nfurther increase in vertical wind shear, and the system will be \nmoving through an extremely dry low- to mid-level air mass.  \nTherefore, continued weakening is likely, and Fausto is expected to \ndegenerate into a post-tropical remnant low within the next day or \nso.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n \n1. Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it passes north of \nthe Hawaiian Islands tonight through Wednesday night. Although the \ncurrent forecast indicates that the strongest winds and heaviest \nrainfall will remain north of the islands, interests across the \nHawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Fausto.\n \n2. Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward across \nthe Hawaiian Islands along exposed east-facing shores through \ntonight as Fausto begins to pass north of the islands.  Large surf \nand strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions along exposed \nshores.  Please consult products from your local weather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/0300Z 23.0N 153.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 23.4N 155.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 23.9N 157.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  30/1200Z 24.4N 160.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  31/0000Z 25.2N 162.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}