{"id": "1196691275695489026", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-07-28T21:00:00Z", "msg": "172\nWTPA41 PHFO 282046\nTCDCP1\n \nTropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number  40\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Tue Jul 28 2026\n \nFausto continues to weaken due to 25 kt or more of southwesterly \nvertical shear. The cyclone is now comprised mainly of a large \nswirl of low- to mid-level clouds with what remains of the \nconvection well to the northeast of the center. Satellite intensity \nestimates are decreasing, and the initial intensity is reduced to a \npossibly generous 45 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter \naircraft is schedule to investigate Fausto near 29/00Z. \n\nThe center of Fausto seems to have re-formed a bit to the north of \nthe previous track, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain \n285/10. As Fausto continues weakening, the low-level ridge to the \nnorth should steer the cyclone or its remnants generally west- \nnorthwestward for the next several days as shown by the track \nguidance. The new track forecast is nudged a little north of the \nprevious track due mainly to the more northerly initial position, \nbut otherwise has no major changes. On the forecast track, Fausto \nshould pass to the north of the Hawaiian Islands tonight through \nlate Wednesday.\n \nA hostile environment of increasing shear and decreasing moisture \nshould keep Fausto weakening through the forecast period, with all \nof the intensity guidance agreeing on this. The cyclone is now \nexpected to weaken to a depression by 36 h and then degenerate to a \nremnant low by 48 h. After 60 h, the circulation should weaken to a \ntrough. If convection does not re-develop near the center during \nthe normal diurnal maximum late tonight, it is possible that the \ncyclone could dissipate earlier than forecast.\n\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it approaches the\nHawaiian Islands this week. Although the current forecast indicates\nthat the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of\nthe islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the\nprogress of Fausto.\n \n2. Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward\nacross Hawaii along exposed east-facing shores through today\nas Fausto approaches and begins to pass north of the islands.\nLarge surf and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions\nalong exposed shores. Please consult products from your local\nweather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/2100Z 22.5N 152.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 22.9N 153.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 23.4N 156.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 23.9N 158.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 24.5N 161.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  31/0600Z 25.3N 163.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}