{"id": "1196618321170628610", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-07-28T15:00:00Z", "msg": "724\nWTPA41 PHFO 281435\nTCDCP1\n \nTropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number  39\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP062026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Tue Jul 28 2026\n \nFausto is continuing to weaken due to the effects of 25 kt of \nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear. The low-level center is exposed \nto the southwest of the convective mass, and both scatterometer and \nsynthetic aperture radar data indicate the circulation is becoming \nelongated. While the Hurricane Hunter aircraft previously in the \nstorm did not re-sample the maximum winds to the northeast, it did \nreport that the central pressure had risen to near 1004 mb. Based on \nthis, decreasing satellite intensity estimates, and continuity from \nthe previous advisory, the initial intensity is reduced to a \npossibly generous 50 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is now 280/12. As Fausto weakens, the low-level \nridge to the north should steer the cyclone or its remnants \ngenerally west-northwestward for the next several days as shown by \nthe track guidance. The new track forecast is similar to the \nprevious forecast, but a little slower, and it lies near the \nsouthern edge of the track guidance envelope close to the HFIP \nCorrected Consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind forecasts. On the \nforecast track, Fausto should pass to the north of the Hawaiian \nIslands tonight through late Wednesday.\n\nAn already hostile environment is forecast to get more hostile, with \nthe current strong shear over Fausto increasing during the next 72 h \nas the cyclone moves into a drier mid-level air mass. This \ncombination should cause additional weakening, and all of the \nintensity guidance agrees with this. Fausto is expected to weaken to \na depression by 48 h and then degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h. \nAfter that time, the circulation should weaken to a trough. The new \nintensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous \nforecast.\n\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it approaches the\nHawaiian Islands this week. Although the current forecast indicates\nthat the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of\nthe islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the\nprogress of Fausto.\n \n2. Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward\nacross Hawaii along exposed east-facing shores through today\nas Fausto approaches and begins to pass north of the islands.\nLarge surf and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions\nalong exposed shores. Please consult products from your local\nweather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/1500Z 21.9N 151.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 22.3N 153.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 22.7N 155.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 23.2N 158.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  30/1200Z 23.7N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 60H  31/0000Z 24.4N 163.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  31/1200Z 25.0N 165.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}