{"id": "1195132539348123654", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-07-23T09:00:00Z", "msg": "455\nWTNT42 KNHC 230838\nTCDAT2\n \nTropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026\n400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026\n\nRadar data and surface observations indicate that the center of \nBertha has moved or re-formed offshore of the coast of southern \nLouisiana. The storm is producing a large area of intense convection \nover the southwestern quadrant, with the elongated low-level center \nat the northeastern edge of the convection. Surface observations and \nscatterometer data show that the maximum winds are near 40 kt and \nthe minimum central pressure is near 1003 mb. Coastal Doppler radar \ndata also shows that the mid-level center is displaced well to the \nsouthwest of the low-level center, and that there has been a \npersistent supercell thunderstorm with a mesocyclone moving westward \nthrough Bertha's southwestern quadrant.\n\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/11 kt. As before, the \nsteering mechanism is a large and strong mid-tropospheric \nanticyclone over the south-central United States. Bertha should move \nalong the southern periphery of this feature for the next day or so, \nwith the center reaching the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana \ncoasts later today. After landfall, a west-southwestward motion is \nforecast until the cyclone dissipates. The new forecast track is \nsimilar to the previous track. Some erratic motion could occur \nbefore landfall due to possible center reformation caused by \nconvective bursts.\n\nContinued moderate to strong northeasterly shear and dry air \nentrainment should prevent significant strengthening before \nlandfall. Weakening is expected after landfall, and the cyclone is \nforecast to dissipated between 36-48 h.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along\nthe northwestern Gulf Coast from south central Louisiana to the \nupper Texas coast today.\n \n2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for portions of the \nMississippi and Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal \nflooding is expected.\n \n3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the Texas Gulf Coast \nand South Texas through tonight.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  23/0900Z 29.0N  92.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  23/1800Z 29.3N  94.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/0600Z 29.0N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  24/1800Z 28.5N 100.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}